Christopher Hajzler is the director of the Canadian Economic Studies Division at the Bank of Canada, where his team is responsible for analyzing long term labour market trends and Canadian potential output growth. His primary research interests include the study of the effects of political risk on international capital flows, expropriation of foreign direct investments, and Law-of-One-Price deviations within and across countries. Prior to joining the Bank of Canada in 2014, he obtained a PhD in Economics from the University of Western Ontario, and was Assistant Professor at the University of Otago, New Zealand.
Staff analytical notes
We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%.
We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.
This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.
This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.
This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019.
Staff discussion papers
This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.
Staff working papers
Previously reported effects of institutional quality and political risks on foreign direct investment (FDI) are mixed and, therefore, difficult to interpret. We present empirical evidence suggesting a relatively clear, statistically robust, and intuitive characterization.
Inflation can affect both the dispersion of commodity-specific price levels across locations (relative price variability, RPV) and the dispersion of inflation rates (relative inflation variability, RIV). Some menu-cost models and models of consumer search suggest that the RIV-inflation relationship could differ from the RPV-inflation relationship.
Foreign investment is often constrained by two forms of political risk: expropriation and corruption. We examine the role of government corruption in foreign direct investment (FDI) when contracts are not fully transparent and investors face the threat of expropriation.
Bank of Canada Review articles
November 17, 2016
Growth has slowed in many emerging-market economies (EMEs) since the 2007–09 global financial crisis, reflecting both cyclical and structural factors. In this context, it will be in-creasingly important for EMEs to raise potential growth by maintaining steady progress on structural reforms. How do structural reforms generally support growth? What are the re-form priorities for EMEs over recent history and today? Finally, what will be the impact of planned structural reforms on potential output growth among the world’s larger EMEs? These are some of the questions considered by the authors.
- "Expropriation risk and FDI in developing countries: Does return of capital dominate return on capital?,"
(with M. Akhtaruzzaman & N. Berg), European Journal of Political Economy. (Forthcoming.)
- "Does institutional quality resolve the Lucas Paradox?,"
(with M. Akhtaruzzaman & D. Owen), Applied Economics. (Forthcoming.)
- "Distance, Language, Religion, and the Law of One Price: Evidence from Canada and Nigeria,"
(with D. Fielding& J. MacGee), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 47(5): 1007–1029, 2016.
- "Relative Price and Inflation Variability in a Simple Consumer Search Model,"
(with D. Fielding), Economics Letters, 123 (1): 17–22, 2014.
- "Resource-Based FDI and Expropriation in Developing Economies," Journal of International Economics, 92 (1): 124–146, 2014.
- "Expropriation of Foreign Direct Investments: Sectoral Patterns from 1993 to 2006," Review of World Economics/Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 148(1): 119–149, 2012.