Thomas J. Carter

Director

Thomas J. Carter is the Director of International Model Development in the International Economic Analysis Department. In this capacity, he plays an important role in expanding and maintaining a suite of models that the Bank uses to explore various economic issues and their implications for policy. He also conducts research and analysis on a range of monetary policy framework issues.

Thomas received his PhD in economics from Princeton University and previously worked as a Principal Economist in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department.

Contact

Director
International Economic Analysis
International Model Development Division

Bank of Canada
234 Wellington Street
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

Latest

The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update

Staff Analytical Note 2019-11 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, José Dorich
This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary Policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada

Staff Discussion Paper 2018-18 Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes, Lawrence L. Schembri
In 1991, Canada became the second country to adopt an inflation target as a central pillar of its monetary policy framework. The regime has proven much more successful than initially expected, both in achieving price stability and in stabilizing the real economy against a wide range of shocks.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Credibility, Inflation targets, Monetary Policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61

Optimal Interbank Regulation

Staff Working Paper 2017-48 Thomas J. Carter
Recent years have seen renewed interest in the regulation of interbank markets. A review of the literature in this area identifies two gaps: first, the literature has tended to make ad hoc assumptions about the interbank contract space, which makes it difficult to generate convincing policy prescriptions; second, the literature has tended to focus on ex-post interventions that kick in only after an interbank disruption has come underway (e.g., open-market operations, lender-of-last-resort interventions, bail-outs), rather than ex-ante prudential policies.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G20

Redistributive Effects of a Change in the Inflation Target

Staff Analytical Note 2017-13 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Yaz Terajima
In light of the financial crisis and its aftermath, several economists have argued that inflation-targeting central banks should reconsider the level of their inflation targets. While the appropriate level for the inflation target remains an open question, it’s important to note that any transition to a new target would entail certain costs.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58

Comparing Forward Guidance and Neo-Fisherianism as Strategies for Escaping Liquidity Traps

Staff Analytical Note 2016-16 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes
What path should policy-makers select for the nominal rate when faced with a liquidity trap during which the effective lower bound binds?
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Transmission of monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5

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Education

  • PhD in economics, Princeton University
  • BA (Honours) in economics, Queen’s University

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Thomas J. Carter

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