Youngmin Park is a Senior Economist in the Canadian Economic Analysis (CEA) department. His research interests include macroeconomics, public finance, and labour economics. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Western Ontario.
Staff analytical notes
We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%.
We expect potential output growth to be higher than in the October 2020 reassessment. By 2024, growth will be slightly above its average growth from 2010 to 2019. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate continues to lie in the range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.
Potential output is expected to grow on average at 1.8 per cent over 2019–21 and at 1.9 per cent in 2022. While the contribution of trend labour input to potential output growth is expected to decrease between 2019 and 2022, the contribution of trend labour productivity is projected to increase.
This note summarizes the reassessment of potential output, conducted by the Bank of Canada for the April 2018 Monetary Policy Report. Overall, the profile for potential output growth is expected to remain flat at 1.8 per cent between 2018 and 2020 and 1.9 per cent in 2021.
This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s annual reassessment of potential output growth, conducted for the April 2017 Monetary Policy Report. Potential output growth is projected to increase from 1.3 per cent in 2017 to 1.6 per cent by 2020.
Staff discussion papers
This paper quantifies the contribution of human capital accumulation to the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada.
Staff working papers
We offer a theory of how inefficiently lax financial regulation could arise in a democratic society.
We use four decades of Canadian matched employer-employee data to explore how inequality and the dynamics of individual earnings have evolved over time in Canada. We also examine how the earnings growth of individuals is related to the growth of their employers.
How are your past, current and future earnings related to those of your parents? We explore this by using 37 years of Canadian tax data on two generations.
Can daycare replace parents’ time spent with children? We explore this by using data on how parents spend time and money on children and how this spending is related to their child’s development.
This paper studies optimal education subsidies when parental transfers are unequally distributed across students and cannot be publicly observed. After documenting substantial inequality in parental transfers among US college students with similar family resources, I examine its implications for how the education subsidy should vary with schooling level and family resources to minimize inefficiencies generated by borrowing constraints.
Economists disagree about the factors driving the substantial increase in residual wage inequality in the U.S. over the past few decades. We identify and estimate a general model of log wage residuals that incorporates: (i) changing returns to unobserved skills, (ii) a changing distribution of unobserved skills, and (iii) changing volatility in wages due to factors unrelated to skills.
The Economy, Plain and Simple
October 7, 2020
The payoffs of higher education
- "Correlation, Consumption, Confusion, or Constraints: Why Do Poor Children Perform so Poorly?"
(with Elizabeth Caucutt and Lance Lochner), Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 119 (1): 102-147 (2017).
- “Earnings Dynamics and Intergenerational Transmission of Skill” (with Lance Lochner), Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming.
- “Four Decades of Canadian Earnings Inequality and Dynamics Across Workers and Firms” (with Audra Bowlus, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant, Huju Liu and Lance Lochner), Quantitative Economics, accepted.