Bio

Craig Johnston is a Senior Economist of the Commodities Division in the international Economic Analysis Department. In this role he performs current analysis and forecasts on developments in commodity markets, providing input to the Bank of Canada's economic outlook. His primary research interests lie within the fields of resource economics, international trade, and climate change. Before joining the Bank of Canada, Craig held an academic position at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and was previously a lecturer in economics at the University of Victoria. Craig holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Victoria.


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Staff Discussion Papers

Scenario Analysis and the Economic and Financial Risks from Climate Change

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-3 Erik Ens, Craig Johnston
This paper adapts climate-economy models that have been applied in other contexts for use in climate-related scenario analysis. We consider illustrative scenarios for the global economy that could generate economic and financial risks. Our results suggest there are significant economic risks from climate change and the move to a low-carbon economy.

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Staff Working Papers

Do Protectionist Trade Policies Integrate Domestic Markets? Evidence from the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute

Staff Working Paper 2020-10 Jinggang Guo, Craig Johnston
We consider the effects of protectionist trade policies on international and domestic market integration, using evidence from the long-standing softwood lumber trade dispute between Canada and the United States.

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Journal Publications

Refereed journals

  • “The Global Warming Potential of CO2 Emissions from Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage.” (with P Withey, and J Guo) Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 115 (2019), 109408.
  • “Global Mitigation Potential of Carbon Stored in Harvested Wood Products,” (with V Radeloff) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 16 (2019): 14526-14531.
  • “From Source to Sink: Past Changes and Model Projections in Carbon Sequestration in the Global Forest Sector,” (with J Buongiorno, P Nepal, and J Prestemon) Journal of Forest Economics 34(2019): 47-72.
  • “Carbon Uptake and Forest Management under Uncertainty: Why Natural Disturbance Matters,” (with GC van Kooten and F Mokhtarzadeh) Journal of Forest Economics 34(2019): 159-185.
  • “Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Narrative Development for Global Forest Sector,” (with A Daigneault, A Korosuo, J Baker, N Forsell, J Prestemon, and B Abt) Journal of Forest Economics 34(2019): 7-45.
  • “Effects of Parameter and Data Errors on Predictions in a Model of the Global Forest Sector,” (with J Buongiorno, J) Forest Policy and Economics 93(2018): 10-17.
  • “Potential Effects of United States Protectionism and Trade Wars on the Global Forest Sector,” (with J Buongiorno, J) Forest Science 64(2018): 121-128.
  • “Managing Forests for Carbon and Timber: A Markov Decision Model of Uneven-Aged Forest Management with Risk,” (with P Withey) Ecological Economics 138(2017): 31-39.
  • “What’s Next in the U.S.-Canada Softwood Lumber Dispute? An Economic Analysis of Restrictive Trade Policy Measures,” (with R Parajuli) Forest Policy and Economics 85(2017): 135-146.
  • “Risk Aversion and Risk Seeking in Multi-Criteria Forest Management: A Markov Decision Process Approach,” (with J Buongiorno and M Zhou) Canadian Journal of Forest Research 47(2017): 800-807.
  • “Assessing Economic Impacts of Internet Adoption through Reduced Pulp and Paper Demand,” (with T Ochuodho and P Withey) Canadian Journal of Forest Research 47(2017): 1381-1391.
  • “Impact of Brexit on the Forest Products Industry of the United Kingdom and the Rest of the World,” (with J Buongiorno). Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research 90(2017): 47-57.
  • “An Assessment of Gains and Losses from International Trade in the Forest Sector,” (with J Buongiorno and S Zhu) Forest Policy and Economics 80(2017): 209-217.
  • “Impact of inefficient quota allocation under the Canada-US softwood lumber dispute: A calibrated mixed complementarity approach,” (with GC van Kooten.) Forest Policy and Economics 74(2015): 71-80.
  • “Global Paper Market Forecasts to 2030 under Future Internet Demand Scenarios,” Journal of Forest Economics 25(2016): 14-28.
  • “Global Trade Impacts of Increasing Europe’s Bioenergy Demand,” (with GC van Kooten) Journal of Forest Economics 23(2016): 27-44.
  • “The Economics of Forest Carbon Offsets,” (with GC van Kooten) Annual Review of Resource Economics 8(2016): 227-246.
  • “Back to the Past: Burning Wood to Save the Globe,” (with GC van Kooten) Ecological Economics 120(2015): 185-193.
  • “Economics of Co-Firing Coal and Biomass: An Application to Western Canada,” (with GC van Kooten) Energy Economics 48(2015): 7-17.
  • “Economic Consequences of Increased Bioenergy Demand,” (with GC van Kooten) Forestry Chronicle 90(2014): 636-642.
  • “Global Impacts of Russian Log Export Restrictions and the Canada–U.S. Lumber Dispute: Modeling Trade in Logs and Lumber,” (with GC van Kooten) Forest Policy and Economics 39(2014): 54-66.
  • “Wind versus Nuclear Options for Generating Electricity in a Carbon Constrained World: Strategizing in an Energy Rich Economy,” (with GC van Kooten and L Wong) American Journal of Agricultural Economics 95(2013): 505-511.