Justin-Damien Guénette

Director

Justin-Damien Guénette is a Director in the International Model Development Division of the International Economic Analysis Department. His primary interests include macroeconomic modelling, forecasting, emerging markets and energy commodities. He obtained his Masters in Global Governance and Economics from the University of Waterloo.

Contact

Director
International Economic Analysis
International Model Development Division

Bank of Canada
234 Wellington Street
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

Latest

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018

This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.
May 11, 2017

Why Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies

Various drivers of business investment can be used to explain the underwhelming performance of investment in advanced economies since the global financial crisis, particularly since 2014. The slow growth in aggregate demand cannot by itself explain the full extent of the recent weakness in investment, which appears to be linked primarily to the collapse of global commodity prices and a rise in economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, business investment growth is likely to remain slower than in the pre-crisis period, largely because of structural factors such as population aging.

A Canada-US Comparison of Labour Market Conditions

In this note, we provide a brief comparison of the recent developments in the labour markets in Canada and the United States. Our analysis indicates that slack remains in the Canadian labour market, while the US labour market is close to full employment.

The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye

Staff Analytical Note 2016-13 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Louis Morel
Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.

The Case of Serial Disappointment

Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors.

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Education

  • M.A., (Global Governance and Economics), University of Waterloo (2009)
  • B.A., (Economics), University of Waterloo

Research Interests

  • macroeconomic modelling
  • forecasting
  • emerging markets
  • energy commodities

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