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Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

Staff Analytical Note 2023-6 (English)
Julien Champagne, Christopher Hajzler, Dmitry Matveev, Harlee Melinchuk, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin
May 2023
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We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes
Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity
JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

DOI: https://doi.org/10.34989/san-2023-6