James Ketcheson is the Director of the International Projection Division in the International Economic Analysis Department (INT). He is focused on producing the quarterly global macroeconomic outlook and assessing key risks and issues surrounding the global projection. James joined the Bank in 2016 as a Senior Economist in INT, following several years working at the Department of Finance Canada. From 2017 to 2021 James served as Principal Economist in both the United States and International Projection divisions, with his work focused on monitoring and forecasting the US economy. James completed his M.A. in Economics at the University of British Columbia, and is a CFA charterholder.
This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.
This note explores the drivers behind the recent increase in the US participation rate in the labour market and assesses the likelihood of a similar gain in Canada. The growth in the US participation rate has largely been due to a pickup in the participation of prime-age workers following a post-recession decline.
This note examines the relatively subdued pace of wage growth in Canada since the commodity price decline in 2014 and assesses whether the weakness is attributable to cyclical (e.g., labour market slack) or structural factors (e.g., resource reallocation and demographic change).
In this note, we provide a brief comparison of the recent developments in the labour markets in Canada and the United States. Our analysis indicates that slack remains in the Canadian labour market, while the US labour market is close to full employment.
Despite the US unemployment rate being close to estimates of the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), measures of underemployment remain elevated, which could be an indication of remaining labour market slack. The shares of involuntary part-time workers and long-term unemployment are high relative to the current stage of the business cycle, suggesting available labour inputs are being underutilized.