Bio

Patrick Alexander is a Principal Researcher in the International Economic Analysis Department. His primary research interests include international trade, international macroeconomics, and applied econometrics. Patrick Alexander received his Ph.D. in Economics from Queen’s University.


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Staff analytical notes

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth

This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019.

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Staff discussion papers

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Staff working papers

Foreign Exchange Interventions: The Long and the Short of It

Staff Working Paper 2022-25 Patrick Alexander, Sami Alpanda, Serdar Kabaca
This paper studies the effects of foreign exchange (FX) interventions in a two-region model where governments issue both short- and long-term bonds. We find that the term premium channel dominates the trade balance channel in our calibrated model. As a result, the conventional beggar-thy-neighbor effects of interventions are overturned.

Exports and the Exchange Rate: A General Equilibrium Perspective

Staff Working Paper 2022-18 Patrick Alexander, Abeer Reza
How do a country’s exports change when its currency depreciates? Does it matter which forces drive the exchange rate deprecation in the first place? We find that this relationship varies greatly depending on what drives exchange rate movements, and we conclude that the direct relationship between the exchange rate and exports is weak for Canada.

Exchange Rates, Retailers, and Importing: Theory and Firm-Level Evidence

Staff Working Paper 2019-34 Alex Chernoff, Patrick Alexander
We develop a model with firm heterogeneity in importing and cross-border shopping among consumers. Exchange-rate appreciations lower the cost of imported goods, but also lead to more cross-border shopping; hence, the net impact on aggregate retail prices and sales is ambiguous.

Responding to the First Era of Globalization: Canadian Trade Policy, 1870–1913

Staff Working Paper 2018-42 Ian Keay, Patrick Alexander
In this paper we document Canada’s trade policy response to late-nineteenth- and earlytwentieth-century globalization. We link newly digitized annual product-specific data on the value of Canadian imports and duties paid from 1870–1913 to establishment-specific production and location information drawn from the manuscripts of the 1871 industrial census.

Did U.S. Consumers Respond to the 2014–2015 Oil Price Shock? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Staff Working Paper 2018-13 Patrick Alexander, Louis Poirier
The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy is a topic of considerable debate. In this paper, we examine the response of U.S. consumers to the 2014–2015 negative oil price shock using representative survey data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey.

The Welfare Effects of Protection: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Canada’s National Policy

Staff Working Paper 2017-18 Patrick Alexander, Ian Keay
In this paper, we study the impact of Canada’s adoption of protectionist trade policy in 1879 on Canadian welfare. Under the National Policy the Canadian average weighted tariff increased from 14% to 21%. The conventional view is that this was a distortionary policy that negatively affected Canadian welfare.

Vertical Specialization and Gains from Trade

Staff Working Paper 2017-17 Patrick Alexander
Multi-stage production is widely recognized as an important feature of the modern global economy. This feature has been incorporated into many state-of-the-art quantitative trade models, and has been shown to deliver significant additional gains from international trade.

Producer Heterogeneity, Value-Added, and International Trade

Staff Working Paper 2016-54 Patrick Alexander
Standard new trade models depict producers as heterogeneous in total factor productivity. In this paper, I adapt the Eaton and Kortum (2002) model of international trade to incorporate tradable intermediate goods and producer heterogeneity in value-added productivity.

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Journal publications

Refereed journals

  • "Vertical Specialization and Gains from Trade", The World Economy, 2021, 44(4).
  • "Did U.S. Consumers Respond to the 2014-2015 Oil Price Shock? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey"
    (with Louis Poirier), The Energy Journal, 2020, 41(4).
  • "Responding to the First Era of Globalization: Canadian Trade Policy, 1870–1913"
    (with Ian Keay), Journal of Economy History, 2019, 79(3).
  • "A general equilibrium analysis of Canada’s national policy"
    (with Ian Keay), Explorations in Economic History, vol. 68(C), 2018, pages 1-15.