Bio

Temel Taskin is a Principal Economist in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. His research interests include macroeconomics and international economics. He received his PhD in economics from the University of Rochester.

Research Field(s): International Macroeconomics Macroeconomics

Staff analytical notes

Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment

Staff Analytical Note 2024-11 Tessa Devakos, Christopher Hajzler, Stephanie Houle, Craig Johnston, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Ron Rautu, Temel Taskin
We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation

Staff Analytical Note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee
We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

Staff Analytical Note 2023-6 Julien Champagne, Christopher Hajzler, Dmitry Matveev, Harlee Melinchuk, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin
We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment

Staff Analytical Note 2022-3 Guyllaume Faucher, Christopher Hajzler, Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin
We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

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Staff discussion papers

What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-13 Marc-André Gosselin, Temel Taskin
We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, E, E3, E5

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Staff working papers

Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls

Staff Working Paper 2023-37 Temel Taskin, Franz Ulrich Ruch
This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earnings calls transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, G, G1, G10

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Journal publications

Refereed journals

  • "Price Search, Consumption Inequality and Expenditure Inequality Over the Life-Cycle"
    (with Yavuz Arslan and Bulent Guler), International Economic Review, 62(1), 295-320, February 2021.
  • "Implications of Negative Interest Rate Policies: An Early Assessment"
    (with Carlos Arteta, Ayhan Kose and Marc Stocker), Pacific Economic Review, 23(1), 8-26, February 2018.
  • "Joint Dynamics of House Prices and Foreclosures"
    (with Yavuz Arslan and Bulent Guler), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(S1), 133-169, April 2015.
  • "Unemployment and Vacancies in Turkey: The Beveridge Curve and Matching Function"
    (with Birol Kanik and Enes Sunel), Central Bank Review, 14(3), 35-62, September 2014.
  • "GDP Growth in Turkey: Inclusive or Not?"
    , Central Bank Review, 14(2), 31-64, May 2014.
  • "Effects of Additional Monetary Tightening on Exchange Rates"
    (with Yasin Akcelik, Ergun Ermisloglu and Arif Oduncu), Eurasian Economic Review, 4(1), 71-79, July 2014.
  • "Does Unemployment Insurance Crowd out Home Production?"
    (with Bulent Guler), European Economic Review, 62, 1-16, August 2013.
  • "Required Reserves as a Credit Policy Tool"
    (with Yasin Mimir and Enes Sunel), BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 13(1), 823-880, June 2013.
  • "Intensive Margin and Extensive Margin Adjustments of Labor Market: Turkey versus United States",
    Economics Bulletin, 33(3), 2307-2319, September 2013.

Other

  • "Hidden Debt"
    (with Bulent Guler and Yasin Kursat Onder), AEA Papers and Proceedings, 112, May 2022.
  • "Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity During COVID-19: A Global View"
    (with William Maloney), Covid Economics, 13, 156-176, May 2020.