Temel Taskin is a Principal Economist in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. His research interests include macroeconomics and international economics. He received his PhD in economics from the University of Rochester.

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Staff analytical notes

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment

We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%.

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Journal publications

Refereed journals

  • "Price Search, Consumption Inequality and Expenditure Inequality Over the Life-Cycle"
    (with Yavuz Arslan and Bulent Guler), International Economic Review, 62(1), 295-320, February 2021.
  • "Implications of Negative Interest Rate Policies: An Early Assessment"
    (with Carlos Arteta, Ayhan Kose and Marc Stocker), Pacific Economic Review, 23(1), 8-26, February 2018.
  • "Joint Dynamics of House Prices and Foreclosures"
    (with Yavuz Arslan and Bulent Guler), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(S1), 133-169, April 2015.
  • "Unemployment and Vacancies in Turkey: The Beveridge Curve and Matching Function"
    (with Birol Kanik and Enes Sunel), Central Bank Review, 14(3), 35-62, September 2014.
  • "GDP Growth in Turkey: Inclusive or Not?"
    , Central Bank Review, 14(2), 31-64, May 2014.
  • "Effects of Additional Monetary Tightening on Exchange Rates"
    (with Yasin Akcelik, Ergun Ermisloglu and Arif Oduncu), Eurasian Economic Review, 4(1), 71-79, July 2014.
  • "Does Unemployment Insurance Crowd out Home Production?"
    (with Bulent Guler), European Economic Review, 62, 1-16, August 2013.
  • "Required Reserves as a Credit Policy Tool"
    (with Yasin Mimir and Enes Sunel), BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 13(1), 823-880, June 2013.
  • "Intensive Margin and Extensive Margin Adjustments of Labor Market: Turkey versus United States",
    Economics Bulletin, 33(3), 2307-2319, September 2013.


  • "Hidden Debt"
    (with Bulent Guler and Yasin Kursat Onder), AEA Papers and Proceedings, 112, May 2022.
  • "Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity During COVID-19: A Global View"
    (with William Maloney), Covid Economics, 13, 156-176, May 2020.