Bio

Temel Taskin is a Principal Economist in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. His research interests include macroeconomics and international economics. He received his PhD in economics from the University of Rochester.

Research Field(s): International Macroeconomics Macroeconomics
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Staff analytical notes

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

Staff Analytical Note 2023-6 Julien Champagne, Christopher Hajzler, Dmitry Matveev, Harlee Melinchuk, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin
We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment

Staff Analytical Note 2022-3 Guyllaume Faucher, Christopher Hajzler, Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin
We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

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Journal publications

Refereed journals

  • "Price Search, Consumption Inequality and Expenditure Inequality Over the Life-Cycle"
    (with Yavuz Arslan and Bulent Guler), International Economic Review, 62(1), 295-320, February 2021.
  • "Implications of Negative Interest Rate Policies: An Early Assessment"
    (with Carlos Arteta, Ayhan Kose and Marc Stocker), Pacific Economic Review, 23(1), 8-26, February 2018.
  • "Joint Dynamics of House Prices and Foreclosures"
    (with Yavuz Arslan and Bulent Guler), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(S1), 133-169, April 2015.
  • "Unemployment and Vacancies in Turkey: The Beveridge Curve and Matching Function"
    (with Birol Kanik and Enes Sunel), Central Bank Review, 14(3), 35-62, September 2014.
  • "GDP Growth in Turkey: Inclusive or Not?"
    , Central Bank Review, 14(2), 31-64, May 2014.
  • "Effects of Additional Monetary Tightening on Exchange Rates"
    (with Yasin Akcelik, Ergun Ermisloglu and Arif Oduncu), Eurasian Economic Review, 4(1), 71-79, July 2014.
  • "Does Unemployment Insurance Crowd out Home Production?"
    (with Bulent Guler), European Economic Review, 62, 1-16, August 2013.
  • "Required Reserves as a Credit Policy Tool"
    (with Yasin Mimir and Enes Sunel), BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 13(1), 823-880, June 2013.
  • "Intensive Margin and Extensive Margin Adjustments of Labor Market: Turkey versus United States",
    Economics Bulletin, 33(3), 2307-2319, September 2013.

Other

  • "Hidden Debt"
    (with Bulent Guler and Yasin Kursat Onder), AEA Papers and Proceedings, 112, May 2022.
  • "Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity During COVID-19: A Global View"
    (with William Maloney), Covid Economics, 13, 156-176, May 2020.