Antoine Poulin-Moore

Staff analytical notes

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.

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Staff discussion papers

COVID-19, Containment and Consumption

We assess the impact of COVID-19 on consumption indicators by estimating the effects of government-mandated containment measures and of the willingness of individuals to voluntarily physically distance to prevent contagion.

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Staff working papers

Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach

Staff Working Paper 2024-10 Antoine Poulin-Moore, Kerem Tuzcuoglu
We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. The results highlight the short-term predictive power of the US economic activity and suggest that financial indicators are reliable predictors of Canadian recessions. In addition, the suggested model meaningfully improves the ability to forecast Canadian recessions, relative to a variety of probit models proposed in the Canadian literature.

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