Galip Kemal Ozhan

Senior Economist

Canadian Economic Analysis
  • Ph.D. in Economics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA (2016)
  • M.A. in Economics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA (2013)
  • M.Sc. in Finance, Imperial College London, U.K. (2010)
  • M.A. in Economics, Bilkent University, Turkey (2009)
  • B.Sc. in Industrial Engineering, Bilkent University, Turkey (2007)

Curriculum vitae

ORCID Author Orcid Link RePEc Google Scholar

Bio

Galip Kemal Ozhan is a Senior Economist at the Bank of Canada. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Washington, an M.Sc. in Finance from Imperial College London, and an M.A. in Economics and a B.Sc. in Industrial Engineering from Bilkent University, Turkey. He worked as a research associate at the Brookings Institution from January 2012 to September 2013, and as an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of St Andrews from September 2016 to August 2019. His main research interests are in international finance, macroeconomics, and monetary economics. His research has been recognized with the 2016 Young Economist Award by the European Economics Association, and the 2016 Best Paper Award by the Money, Macro and Finance Research Group in the United Kingdom.

Staff analytical notes

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

Staff Analytical Note 2023-6 Julien Champagne, Christopher Hajzler, Dmitry Matveev, Harlee Melinchuk, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin
We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

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Staff working papers

International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects

Staff Working Paper 2023-46 Fabio Ghironi, Daisoon Kim, Galip Kemal Ozhan
We study the transmission and third-country effects of international sanctions. A sanctioned country’s losses are mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses amplified, if a third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41, F42, F5, F51

News-Driven International Credit Cycles

Staff Working Paper 2021-66 Galip Kemal Ozhan
This paper examines the implications of positive news about future asset values that turn out to be incorrect at a later date in an open economy model with banking. The model captures the patterns of bank credit and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000 and 2010. The model finds that the use of unconventional policies leads to a milder bust.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F32, F4, F41, G, G1, G15, G2, G21

Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool

Staff Working Paper 2020-13 Fabio Ghironi, Galip Kemal Ozhan
We study a novel policy tool—interest rate uncertainty—that can be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and to adjust the composition of external account between shortterm securities and foreign direct investment (FDI).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International financial markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G15

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Journal publications

Refereed journals

  • “News-Driven International Credit Cycles,” Journal of Macroeconomic 70 (December 2021): 103372.
  • “Financial Intermediation, Resource Allocation, and Macroeconomic Interdependence,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 115 (November 2020): 265-278.

Other

Book chapters

  • “The Growth Debate Redux” in K. Dervis¸ and H. Kharas (eds), Growth, Convergence and Income Distribution: The Road from the Brisbane G-20 Summit, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D.C., November 2014.
  • “Unconventional Monetary Policy and Its Reflections on the Global Economy” (with Izak Atiyas and Fuat Keyman) in K. Dervis¸ and H. Kharas (eds), Think Tank 20: The G-20 and Central Banks in the New World of Unconventional Monetary Policy, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D.C., August 2013.

Op-Eds

  • “Fiscal Multipliers” (with Domenico Lombardi), Longitude, March 2013.
  • “Buying Time by Buying Bonds” (with Kemal Dervis¸ and Karim Foda), Brookings Up Front, September 2012.