Jean-Philippe Cayen


Jean-Philippe Cayen is the Director of the Projection Division in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. In this capacity, he oversees the Bank’s economic analysis and forecasts of the Canadian economy. His primary interests include economic forecasting and business cycles analysis. Jean-Philippe obtained his Masters in Applied Economics from the HEC Montréal.


Jean-Philippe Cayen

Canadian Economic Analysis

Bank of Canada
234 Wellington Street
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9


An Improved Equation for Predicting Canadian Non-Commodity Exports

Staff Discussion Paper 2017-1 Patrick Alexander, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Alex Proulx
We estimate two new equations for Canadian non-commodity exports (NCX) that incorporate three important changes relative to the current equation used at the Bank of Canada.

What Drives Exchange Rates? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Dollar Bilateral Exchange Rates

We use a novel approach to identify economic developments that drive exchange rates in the long run. Using a panel of six quarterly U.S. bilateral real exchange rates – Australia, Canada, the euro, Japan, New Zealand and the United Kingdom – over the 1980-2007 period, a dynamic factor model points to two common factors.

Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting

The workhorse DSGE model used for monetary policy evaluation is designed to capture business cycle fluctuations in an optimization-based format. It is commonplace to log-linearize models and express them with variables in deviation-from-steady-state format.

An Optimized Monetary Policy Rule for ToTEM

Staff Working Paper 2006-41 Jean-Philippe Cayen, Amy Corbett, Patrick Perrier
The authors propose a monetary policy rule for the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM), the Bank of Canada's new projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy.

La fiabilité des estimations de l'écart de production au Canada

Staff Working Paper 2002-10 Jean-Philippe Cayen, Simon van Norden
In this paper, we measure, with Canadian data, the scope of the revisions to real-time estimates of the output gap generated with several univariate and multivariate techniques. We also make an empirical evaluation of the usefulness of the output gap estimates for predicting inflation.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32

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Refereed Journals

  • “The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates”,
    (with Simon van Norden), The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 16, 373-393, 2005.


  • M.Sc. Applied Economics, HEC Montréal (2001)
  • B.A. Economics, Université de Sherbrooke (1998)

Research Interests

  • Forecasting
  • Business cycle
  • Applied macroeconomics


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