Staff Economic Projections

Download staff projections and learn how the data is structured.

After each quarterly release of the National Economic Accounts data, Bank of Canada staff analyze the Canadian and international economies and produce forecasts for many macroeconomic variables. These forecasts are provided to Governing Council in preparation for monetary policy decisions. They are saved along with the relevant historical real-time data and released once a year with a five-year lag.

For more details about the Staff Economic Projections database, see Champagne, Poulin-Bellisle and Sekkel (2018), Staff Working Paper No. 2018-52.

Data Download

Projection data on this page is available in the CSV, JSON, and XML formats provided by our Valet API.



Real Gross Domestic Product

Vintages available from 1986Q4 to 2013Q4.

Nominal Gross Domestic Product

Vintages available from 1982Q2 to 2013Q4.

Implicit Price Deflator for GDP

Vintages available from 1986Q4 to 2013Q4.

Nominal Gross National Expenditure

Vintages available from 1970Q4 to 1986Q4. Missing vintages in 1971Q2 and 1973Q4.

Implicit Price Deflator for GNE

Vintages available from 1970Q4 to 1986Q3. Missing vintages in 1971Q2 and 1973Q4.

Personal Consumption Expenditures

Vintages available: 1982Q2 to 1999Q4 and 2011Q2 to 2013Q4.

Deflator for Personal Consumption Expenditures

Vintages available from 1982Q2 to 1999Q4 and 2011Q2 to 2013Q4.

Investment (Gross fixed capital formation)

Vintages available from 1982Q2 to 2013Q4.

Inventory Investment

Vintages available: 1982Q2 to 1999Q4 and 2011Q1 to 2013Q4.

Residential Investment

Vintages available from 1982Q2 to 2001Q1, 2001Q3 to 2004Q4 and 2011Q2 to 2013Q4.

Government Expenditures

Vintages available from 1982Q2 to 2013Q4.

Exports of Goods and Services

Vintages available from 1982Q2 to 2013Q4.

Imports of Goods and Services

Vintages available from 1982Q2 to 2013Q4.

Sum of Personal consumption expenditures, residential investment and investment in inventories (CIRINV)

Vintages available from 1993Q3 to 2011Q1.

Deflator for CIRINV

Vintages available from 1993Q3 to 2011Q1.

Output gap

Vintages available from 1987Q1 to 2013Q4.

Consumer Price Index

Vintages available from 1973Q3 to 2013Q4. Missing vintage in 1973Q4.

Core Consumer Price Index

Vintages available from 1980Q1 to 2013Q4.

Unemployment rate

Vintages available from 1982Q2 to 2013Q4.

U.S. / CAD nominal exchange rate

Vintages available from 1974Q2 to 2013Q4.

Staff projection policy rate

This is the implied policy rate path that is run through the staff projection. It may differ from Governing Council’s actual policy rate.
The policy rates used in the staff projection are:
  • The Bank rate (from 1982Q2 to 1993Q2, and from 2007Q3 to 2013Q4).
  • The 3-month Commercial Paper rate (from 1993Q3 to 2007Q2).

5-year Federal Government bonds rate

Vintages available from 2011Q1 to 2013Q4.

Structure

Series

Each series download

  • is organized by variable;
  • contains one time series per projection for each variable.

Each series represents a snapshot of

  • the historical data available to staff at a specific point in time;
  • the forecasts produced by staff at that time.

Notation

Series names describe the variable and the projection (or “vintage”) date. Observations from before the vintage date are historical data, and those on or after the vintage date are forecasts.

For example, in the case of SWP-GDP1987Q1:

  • The series name refers to GDP as of the first quarter (Q1) of 1987.
  • Observations before 1987Q1 are historical data.
  • Observations from 1987Q1 onward are forecasts.
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