Xin Scott Chen

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Staff analytical notes

The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update

Staff Analytical Note 2019-11 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, José Dorich
This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting.

The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2018 Estimates

Staff Analytical Note 2018-22 Xin Scott Chen, José Dorich
The neutral nominal policy rate serves as a benchmark for assessing the degree of monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the policy rate. Since quantitative measures of the neutral rate are subject to considerable uncertainty, Bank staff rely on four different approaches to estimate the Canadian neutral rate.

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Staff discussion papers

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020

This paper presents updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2022. Global potential output growth is expected to decline sharply in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and recover partially by the end of the projection horizon of the October 2020 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4

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