Staff Working Papers

Research intended for journal publication and published in progress, in order to invite feedback from a technical audience.

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1048 result(s)

Do Protectionist Trade Policies Integrate Domestic Markets? Evidence from the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute

Staff Working Paper 2020-10 Jinggang Guo, Craig M.T. Johnston
We consider the effects of protectionist trade policies on international and domestic market integration, using evidence from the long-standing softwood lumber trade dispute between Canada and the United States.

Welfare Analysis of Equilibria With and Without Early Termination Fees in the US Wireless Industry

Staff Working Paper 2020-9 Joseph Cullen, Nicolas Schutz, Oleksandr Shcherbakov
The elimination of long-term contracts and early termination fees (ETFs) in the US wireless industry at the end of 2015 increased monthly service fees by 2 to 5 percent. Nevertheless, consumers are clearly better off without ETFs. While firms’ revenues from ETFs vanish, their profits from monthly fees increase. As a result, the overall effect on producer profits is less clear.

The Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Markets: Evidence from Oil Inventory News

Staff Working Paper 2020-8 Ron Alquist, Reinhard Ellwanger, Jianjian Jin
We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news.

Demand for Payment Services and Consumer Welfare: The Introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency

Using a two-stage model, we study the determinants of Canadian consumers’ choices of payment method at the point of sale. We estimate consumer preferences and adoption costs for various combinations of payment methods. We analyze how introducing a central bank digital currency would affect the market equilibrium.

A Portfolio-Balance Model of Inflation and Yield Curve Determination

Staff Working Paper 2020-6 Antonio Diez de los Rios
How does the supply of nominal government debt affect the macroeconomy? One answer is found in modern versions of the preferred-habitat and portfolio-balance theories of the yield curve.

Identifying Consumer-Welfare Changes when Online Search Platforms Change Their List of Search Results

Staff Working Paper 2020-5 Ryan Martin
Online shopping is often guided by search platforms. Consumers type keywords into query boxes, and search platforms deliver a list of products. Consumers' attention is limited, and exhaustive searches are often impractical.

A Spatial Model of Bank Branches in Canada

Staff Working Paper 2020-4 Heng Chen, Matthew Strathearn
This study explores the market structure of the Canadian banking industry at the postal-code level. In particular, we study the effect of geographic and industrial concentration on the density of bank branches.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): L, L1, R, R3

Banking Regulation and Market Making

Staff Working Paper 2017-7 David A. Cimon, Corey Garriott
We model how securities dealers respond to regulations on leverage, position, and liquidity such as those imposed by the Basel III framework. The dealers respond by endogenously moving to make markets on an agency basis, matching buyers to sellers rather than taking client positions on the balance sheet.

Managing GDP Tail Risk

Staff Working Paper 2020-3 Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt
Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs.

Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound

This research develops a model in which the economy is directly influenced by how pessimistic or optimistic economic agents are about the future. The agents may hold different views and update them as new economic data become available.

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