Staff Discussion Papers

Finished work on technical issues related to the functions of the Bank (Monetary Policy, Financial System, Currency and Funds Management) and its policy.

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195 result(s)

COVID-19 Crisis: Lessons Learned for Future Policy Research

One year later, we review the events that took place in Canadian fixed-income markets at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis and propose potential policy research questions for future work.

Qualitative Field Research in Monetary Policy Making

Staff Discussion Paper 2021-1 Chris D'Souza, Jane Voll
Central banks conduct research involving in-depth interviews with external parties—but little is known about how this information affects monetary policy. We address this gap by analyzing open-ended interviews with senior central bank economic and policy staff who work closely with policy decision-makers.

Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature

This paper summarizes the literature on the performance of various extended monetary policy tools when conventional policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound. We highlight issues that may arise when these tools are used by central banks of small open economies.

A Reference Guide for the Business Outlook Survey

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-15 David Amirault, Naveen Rai, Laurent Martin
The Business Outlook Survey (BOS) has become an important part of monetary policy deliberations at the Bank of Canada and is also well known in Canadian policy and financial circles. This paper compiles more than 20 years of experience conducting the BOS and serves as a comprehensive reference manual.

Towards a HANK Model for Canada: Estimating a Canadian Income Process

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-13 Iskander Karibzhanov
How might one simulate a million realistic income paths and compute their statistical moments in under a second? Using CUDA-based methods to estimate the Canadian earnings process, I find that the distribution of labour income growth is sharply peaked with heavy tails—similar to that in the United States.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E24, J, J3, J31

2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment

This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.

Has the Inflation Process Changed? Selective Review of Recent Research on Inflation Dynamics

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-11 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, James (Jim) C. MacGee
From 2011 to 2019, inflation in Canada and advanced economies usually registered below inflation targets, spurring the debate on whether the inflation process has changed. This paper highlights emerging questions that will influence the conduct of monetary policy in Canada in the near term.

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020

This paper presents updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2022. Global potential output growth is expected to decline sharply in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and recover partially by the end of the projection horizon of the October 2020 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4

Liquidity Usage and Payment Delay Estimates of the New Canadian High Value Payments System

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-9 Francisco Rivadeneyra, Nellie Zhang
As part of modernizing its core payments infrastructure, Canada will replace the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) with a new Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system called Lynx. An important question for policy-makers is how Lynx should be designed.