Staff Discussion Papers

Finished work on technical issues related to the functions of the Bank (Monetary Policy, Financial System, Currency and Funds Management) and its policy.

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183 result(s)

Cash and COVID-19: The impact of the pandemic on demand for and use of cash

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-6 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Mitchell Nicholson, Julia Zhu
Consumer spending declined significantly during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. This negative shock likely reduced spending across all methods of payment (cash, debit, credit, etc.). The mix of payment methods consumers use could also be affected. We study how the pandemic has influenced the demand for and use of cash. We also offer insights into the use of other payment methods, such as debit and credit cards.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54

Canadian Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Conditions

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-4 Thibaut Duprey
Severe disruptions in the financial markets, as observed during the 2008 global financial crisis or the COVID-19 pandemic, can impair the stability of the entire financial system and worsen macroeconomic downturns.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E4, E44, G, G0, G01

Scenario Analysis and the Economic and Financial Risks from Climate Change

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-3 Erik Ens, Craig Johnston
This paper adapts climate-economy models that have been applied in other contexts for use in climate-related scenario analysis. We consider illustrative scenarios for the global economy that could generate economic and financial risks. Our results suggest there are significant economic risks from climate change and the move to a low-carbon economy.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, D, D5, D58, E, E5, E50, O, O4, O44, P, P1, P18, Q, Q4, Q5, Q54, Q55

Is Central Bank Currency Fundamental to the Monetary System?

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-2 Hanna Armelius, Carl Andreas Claussen, Scott Hendry
In this paper, we discuss whether the ability of individuals to convert commercial bank money (i.e., bank deposits) into central bank money is fundamentally important for the monetary system.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5

The Power of Helicopter Money Revisited: A New Keynesian Perspective

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-1 Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes
We analyze money financing of fiscal transfers (helicopter money) in two simple New Keynesian models: a “textbook” model in which all money is non-interest-bearing (e.g., all money is currency), and a more realistic model with interest-bearing reserves.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Credibility, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Transmission of monetary policy, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E4, E41, E43, E5, E51, E52, E58, E6, E61, E63

Changing Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and Debt

Staff Discussion Paper 2019-12 Stephen S. Poloz
This paper discusses three long-term forces that are acting on the global economy and their implications for companies and policy-makers.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Financial stability, International topics, Monetary policy, Trade integration, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E6, E63, F, F0, F02, F1, F15, F5, F53, F6, H, O, O1, O11, O3, O33

Technological Progress and Monetary Policy: Managing the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Staff Discussion Paper 2019-11 Stephen S. Poloz
This paper looks at the implications for monetary policy of the widespread adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which is sometimes called the “fourth industrial revolution.”
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Monetary policy framework, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E3, O, O1, O11, O3, O33

2018 Bitcoin Omnibus Survey: Awareness and Usage

Staff Discussion Paper 2019-10 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Mitchell Nicholson
The Bank of Canada continues to use the Bitcoin Omnibus Survey (BTCOS) to monitor trends in Canadians’ awareness, ownership and use of Bitcoin. The most recent iteration was conducted in late 2018, following an 85 percent decline in the price of Bitcoin throughout the year.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E4, O, O5, O51

A Comprehensive Evaluation of Measures of Core Inflation in Canada: An Update

Staff Discussion Paper 2019-9 Helen Lao, Ceciline Steyn
We provide an updated evaluation of the value of various measures of core inflation that could be used in the conduct of monetary policy. We find that the Bank of Canada’s current preferred measures of core inflation—CPI-trim, CPI-median and CPI-common—continue to outperform alternative core measures across a range of criteria.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52