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57 Results

January 15, 2024

Flood risk and residential lending

We present key findings of a recent study that evaluates the credit risk that flooding poses to the residential lending activities of Canadian banks and credit unions. Results show that such risk currently appears modest but could become larger with climate change.

Climate-Related Flood Risk to Residential Lending Portfolios in Canada

We assess the potential financial risks of current and projected flooding caused by extreme weather events in Canada. We focus on the residential real estate secured lending (RESL) portfolios of Canadian financial institutions (FIs) because RESL portfolios are an important component of FIs’ balance sheets and because the assets used to secure such loans are immobile and susceptible to climate-related extreme weather events.

Identifying Nascent High-Growth Firms Using Machine Learning

Staff Working Paper 2023-53 Stephanie Houle, Ryan Macdonald
Firms that grow rapidly have the potential to usher in new innovations, products or processes (Kogan et al. 2017), become superstar firms (Haltiwanger et al. 2013) and impact the aggregate labour share (Autor et al. 2020; De Loecker et al. 2020). We explore the use of supervised machine learning techniques to identify a population of nascent high-growth firms using Canadian administrative firm-level data.

Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy

We explore the implications of digitalization for monetary policy, both in terms of how monetary policy affects the economy and in terms of data analysis and communication with the public.

Cryptoasset Ownership and Use in Canada: An Update for 2022

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-14 Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Doina Rusu
We find that Bitcoin ownership declined from 13% in 2021 to 10% in 2022. This drop occurred against a background of steep price declines and an increasingly tight regulatory atmosphere.

Why Consumers Disagree About Future Inflation

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-11 Naveen Rai, Patrick Sabourin
Since 2022, consumer inflation expectations have shifted, with a significant increase in those expecting high inflation in the coming year and a surge in those expecting deflation further in the future. Using data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, this paper seeks to assess the factors that influence people to expect high inflation, moderate inflation or deflation.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31

What People Believe About Monetary Finance and What We Can(’t) Do About It: Evidence from a Large-Scale, Multi-Country Survey Experiment

Staff Working Paper 2023-36 Cars Hommes, Julien Pinter, Isabelle Salle
We conduct a large-scale survey to shed light on what people believe about public finance. An experiment demonstrates that central bank communication can persistently shift views on monetary financing. It further suggests that views on monetary financing impact support for fiscal discipline.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E5, E58, E6, E60, E62, E7, E70, G, G5, G53, H, H3, H31

Turning Words into Numbers: Measuring News Media Coverage of Shortages

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-8 Lin Chen, Stephanie Houle
We develop high-frequency, news-based indicators using natural language processing methods to analyze news media texts. Our indicators track both supply (raw, intermediate and final goods) and labour shortages over time. They also provide weekly time-varying topic narratives about various types of shortages.

Introducing the Bank of Canada’s Market Participants Survey

Staff Analytical Note 2023-1 Annick Demers, Tamara Gomes, Stephane Gignac
The Market Participants Survey (MPS) gathers financial market participants’ expectations for key macroeconomic and financial variables and for monetary policy. This staff analytical note describes the MPS’s objectives and main features, its process and design, and how Bank of Canada staff use the results.

The 2021–22 Merchant Acceptance Survey Pilot Study

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-1 Angelika Welte, Joy Wu
The rise in digital payment innovations has spurred a discussion about the future of cash at the point of sale. The Bank conducted the 2021–22 Merchant Acceptance Survey Pilot Study to study trends in merchant cash acceptance and monitor conditions for the potential issuance of a central bank digital currency.
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