Bio

Jeannine Bailliu is a Senior Research Advisor in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. Her primary research interests are international finance, international economics, and applied econometrics. She has conducted research on the Chinese economy, exchange rate and monetary policy regimes, exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate determination and macroeconomic modelling. Prior to joining the Bank of Canada, she obtained a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California in Santa Cruz; she also worked for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in Paris.


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Staff Discussion Papers

Global Commodity Markets and Rebalancing in China: The Case of Copper

Given that China accounts for about half of global copper consumption, it is reasonable to expect that any significant change in Chinese copper consumption will have an impact on the global market.

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Staff Working Papers

Can Media and Text Analytics Provide Insights into Labour Market Conditions in China?

The official Chinese labour market indicators have been seen as problematic, given their small cyclical movement and their only-partial capture of the labour force. In our paper, we build a monthly Chinese labour market conditions index (LMCI) using text analytics applied to mainland Chinese-language newspapers over the period from 2003 to 2017.

How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030

Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years.

Macroprudential Rules and Monetary Policy when Financial Frictions Matter

Staff Working Paper 2012-6 Jeannine Bailliu, Césaire Meh, Yahong Zhang
This paper examines the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy and whether policy makers should respond to financial imbalances. To address this issue, we build a dynamic general equilibrium model that features financial market frictions and financial shocks as well as standard macroeconomic shocks.

The Transmission of Shocks to the Chinese Economy in a Global Context: A Model-Based Approach

Staff Working Paper 2010-17 Jeannine Bailliu, Patrick Blagrave
To better understand the dynamics of the Chinese economy and its interaction with the global economy, the authors incorporate China into an existing model for the G-3 economies (i.e., the United States, the euro area, and Japan), paying particular attention to modelling the exchange rate and monetary policy in China.

Multilateral Adjustment and Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Case of Three Commodity Currencies

In this paper, we empirically investigate whether multilateral adjustment to large U.S. external imbalances can help explain movements in the bilateral exchange rates of three commodity currencies – the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand (ACNZ) dollars.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation

Staff Working Paper 2004-21 Jeannine Bailliu, Eiji Fujii
This paper investigates the question of whether a transition to a low-inflation environment, induced by a shift in monetary policy, results in a decline in the degree of pass-through of exchange rate movements to consumer prices.

Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico

The authors apply existing inflation models that have worked well in industrialized countries to Mexico, an emerging market that has recently moved to adopt an inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy. They compare the performance of these models with a mark-up model that has been used extensively to analyze inflation in Mexico.

Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?

Previous studies on whether the nature of the exchange rate regime influences a country's medium-term growth performance have been based on a tripartite classification scheme that distinguishes between pegged, intermediate, and flexible exchange rate regimes.

Private Capital Flows, Financial Development, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries

Staff Working Paper 2000-15 Jeannine Bailliu
An important issue in the debate over the desirability of freer capital mobility for developing countries is whether capital flows have significant effects on economic growth. Proponents of capital account liberalization cite the growth-promoting attributes of capital inflows as a key benefit of financial integration for developing countries.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F4, F43, O, O5, O50

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Technical Reports

Introducing the Bank of Canada's Projection Model for the Global Economy

To complement its existing set of tools to analyze and forecast developments in the global economy, the Bank of Canada recently developed a version of the Global Projection Model (GPM) jointly with staff at the International Monetary Fund.

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Bank Publications

Bank of Canada Review articles

November 17, 2016

Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Emerging-Market Economies

Growth has slowed in many emerging-market economies (EMEs) since the 2007–09 global financial crisis, reflecting both cyclical and structural factors. In this context, it will be in-creasingly important for EMEs to raise potential growth by maintaining steady progress on structural reforms. How do structural reforms generally support growth? What are the re-form priorities for EMEs over recent history and today? Finally, what will be the impact of planned structural reforms on potential output growth among the world’s larger EMEs? These are some of the questions considered by the authors.
February 23, 2012

Household Borrowing and Spending in Canada

Understanding how much of the increased debt load of Canadian households has been used to finance household spending on consumption and home renovation is important for the conduct of monetary policy. In this article, the authors use a comprehensive data set that provides information on the uses of debt by Canadian households. They first present some facts regarding the evolution of Canadian household debt over the period from 1999 to 2010, emphasizing the increased importance of debt flows that are secured by housing. They then explore how Canadian households have used their borrowed funds over the same period, and assess the role of these borrowed funds in financing total consumption and spending on home renovation. Finally, they examine the possible effects of a decline in house prices on consumption when housing equity is used as collateral against household indebtedness.
November 19, 2010

Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined? Some Recent Insights from the Literature

Building on an earlier Review article, the authors critically reassess the premise that exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) has declined in light of recent studies of the issue in the context of a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium framework.
October 18, 2005

What Drives Movements in Exchange Rates?

Understanding what causes the exchange rate to move has been on ongoing challenge for economists. Despite extensive research, traditional macro models of exchange rate determination—with the exception of the Bank of Canada's exchange rate equation—have typically not fared well, motivating economists to explore new ways to model exchange rate movements that incorporate more complex and realistic settings. Within the context of the sharp appreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2003 and 2004, Bailliu and King review the macroeconomic models of exchange rates, as well as the micro-structure studies that highlight the importance of trading mechanisms, information asymmetry, and investor heterogeneity for explaining short-term dynamics in exchange rates. In addition to summarizing the current state of knowledge, they highlight recent advances and identify promising alternative approaches.
May 22, 2004

Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Industrialized Countries

Economists' long-standing interest in the degree to which exchange rate movements are reflected in prices was rekindled in the 1970s by a combination of rising inflation and the adoption of more flexible exchange rate regimes in many industrialized countries. Specifically, there were concerns that a large currency depreciation could degenerate into an inflationary spiral. Such fears were curtailed in the 1980s and early 1990s as industrialized countries began to reduce and stabilize their inflation rates. The low-inflation period most industrialized countries entered approximately a decade ago coincided with significant exchange rate depreciations that had much smaller effects on consumer prices than expected. This led to a belief that the extent to which exchange rate movements are passed through to consumer prices has declined. In this article, the authors examine why pass-through could be incomplete and review empirical estimates to determine whether pass-through has indeed declined, suggesting possible reasons for this decline and discussing the implications for monetary policy.
December 21, 2002

Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets

A series of major international financial crises in the 1990s, and the recent introduction of the euro, have renewed interest in alternative exchange rate systems. The choice of exchange rate regime is particularly relevant for emerging-market countries because other countries are perceived either as having no alternative to their current exchange rate arrangement or as highly unlikely to change. This article examines the evolution of exchange rate regimes in emerging markets over the past decade and compares the strengths and weaknesses of the various available systems. These include intermediate regimes, such as the adjustable pegged exchange rate popular throughout much of the post—war period, and the two extreme exchange rate regimes: permanently fixed or freely floating exchange rate regimes. Two recently proposed alternatives are also evaluated: the Managed Floating Plus and Baskets, Bands, and Crawling Pegs. Both try to combine the best elements of the flexible and fixed exchange rate systems, but the Managed Floating Plus is deemed to be the more promising alternative.

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Journal Publications

Refereed journals

  • “Can Media and Text Analytics Provide Insights into Labour Market Conditions in China?” (with Xinfen Han, Mark Kruger, Yu-Hsien Liu, and Sri Thanabalasingam), International Journal of Forecasting, July-September 2019, Vol. 35, pp. 1118-1130.
  • “How fast can China grow? The Middle Kingdom’s prospects to 2030” (with Mark Kruger, Argyn Toktamyssov and Wheaton Welbourn), Pacific Economic Review, May 2019, Vol. 24, pp. 373-399. (First published in September 2017)
  • "Macroprudential Rules and Monetary Policy when Financial Frictions Matter"
    (with Cesaire Meh and Yahong Zhang), Economic Modelling, November 2015, Vol. 50, p. 148-161.
  • “Multilateral adjustment, regime switching and real exchange rate dynamics”
    (with Ali Dib, T. Kano and L. Schembri) North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 27, January 2014, pages 68-87.
  • "Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?"
    (with Robert Lafrance and Jean-Francois Perrault), International Finance, Winter 2003, 6 (3), p. 381-414.
  • "Do Funded Pensions Contribute to Higher Aggregate Savings? A Cross–Country Analysis"
    (with Helmut Reisen), Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), 1998, 134 (4), p. 692-711.

Other

Conference, seminars and workshops