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93 Results

Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation

We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.
December 7, 2023

Economic progress report: Immigration, housing and the outlook for inflation

Remarks Toni Gravelle Windsor–Essex Regional Chamber of Commerce Windsor, Ontario
Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle discusses the latest interest rate decision along with how immigration helps Canada’s economy and how it impacts inflation.
December 7, 2023

What population growth means for the economy and inflation

Speech summary Toni Gravelle Windsor-Essex Regional Chamber of Commerce Windsor, Ontario
Speaking a day after we decided to hold interest rates steady at 5%, Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle discusses immigration, inflation and the role that newcomers play in helping our economy grow.

What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-13 Marc-André Gosselin, Temel Taskin
We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time.

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.

Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023

We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment.
November 10, 2022

Getting back to stable prices and a balanced jobs market

Speech summary Tiff Macklem Public Policy Forum Toronto, Ontario
Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the relationship between inflation and employment and how the Bank of Canada is working to cool an overheated economy.
November 10, 2022

Restoring labour market balance and price stability

Remarks Tiff Macklem Public Policy Forum Toronto, Ontario
Governor Tiff Macklem outlines the link between high inflation and tight labour markets. He explains how the Bank is working to rebalance the labour market and discusses how structural changes may influence the supply of workers in Canada.
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