Julien Champagne

Principal researcher

Julien Champagne is a Principal researcher in the Projection division of the Canadian Economic Analysis (CEA) Department. His research interests include monetary policy, labour markets, wages and compensation and applied macroeconomics. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM).

Contact

Principal researcher
Canadian Economic Analysis
Projection

Bank of Canada
234 Wellington Street
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

Curriculum vitae

Latest

Potential Output in Canada: 2019 Reassessment

Potential output is expected to grow on average at 1.8 per cent over 2019–21 and at 1.9 per cent in 2022. While the contribution of trend labour input to potential output growth is expected to decrease between 2019 and 2022, the contribution of trend labour productivity is projected to increase.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6

Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts

We present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests.

Changes in Monetary Regimes and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks: Narrative Evidence from Canada

Staff Working Paper 2017-39 Julien Champagne, Rodrigo Sekkel
We use narrative evidence along with a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections from 1974 to 2015 to construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks and estimate the effects of monetary policy in Canada.

The Real-Time Properties of the Bank of Canada’s Staff Output Gap Estimates

We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada’s staff output gap estimates since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, in line with recent evidence for the U.S.

Reconciling the Differences in Aggregate U.S. Wage Series

Staff Working Paper 2016-1 Julien Champagne, André Kurmann, Jay Stewart
Average hourly real wage series from the Labor Productivity and Costs (LPC) program and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program have evolved very differently over the past decades.

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Other

Refereed Journals

Other Research

  • “Monetary policy and Employment: Revisiting the Firm-Size Effect”.
    (with Emilien Gouin-Bonenfant).
  • “Mismeasurement of Unemployment Duration and Labour Force Status in the CPS”. 2016.
  • Has the Canadian economy become more predictable? Evidence from BoC staff forecasts.

Education

  • Ph.D., Economics, Université du Québec à Montréal,Thesis: “Changes in Labor Market Institutions, Performance-Pay, and Increased Wage Volatility in the U.S.” Advisor: Professor Andre Kurmann
  • M.Sc., Economics, Université du Québec à Montréal, Canada
  • B.Com, Finance, McGill University, Qu ébec, Canada

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