Julien Champagne is a Principal researcher in the Canadian Economic Studies division of the Canadian Economic Analysis (CEA) Department. His research interests include applied macroeconomics, monetary policy and labour markets. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM).
Staff Analytical Notes
Staff Working Papers
Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and ForecastsWe present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests.
Changes in Monetary Regimes and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks: Narrative Evidence from CanadaWe use narrative evidence along with a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections from 1974 to 2015 to construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks and estimate the effects of monetary policy in Canada.
The Carrot and the Stick: The Business Cycle Implications of Incentive Pay in the Labor Search ModelThis paper considers a real business cycle model with labor search frictions where two types of incentive pay are explicitly introduced following the insights from the micro literature on performance pay (e.g. Lazear, 1986).
- “Introducing the Bank of Canada's Staff Projections Database"
(with Rodrigo Sekkel and Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle), Journal of Applied Econometrics. 2019. Forthcoming.
- “The Great Increase in Relative Volatility of Real Wages in the United States”
(with A. Kurmann). Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 60, Issue 2, p.166-183. March 2013.
- “Reconciling the Divergence in Aggregate U.S. Wage Series”
(with Andre Kurmann and Jay Stewart). Labour Economics, Volume 47, p. 27-41. December 2017.
- “The Real-time Properties of the Bank of Canada's Staff Output Gap Estimates"
(with Rodrigo Sekkel and Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle). Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume 50, Issue 6, p. 1167-1188. September 2018.
- “Changes in Monetary Regimes and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks: Narrative Evidence from Canada"
(with Rodrigo Sekkel). 2018. Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 99, p. 72-87. November 2018.
- “Monetary policy and Employment: Revisiting the Firm-Size Effect”.
(with Emilien Gouin-Bonenfant).
- “Mismeasurement of Unemployment Duration and Labour Force Status in the CPS”. 2016.
- Has the Canadian economy become more predictable? Evidence from BoC staff forecasts.