- Ph.D. in Economics, CERGE-EI
- M.A. in Economics, CERGE-EI
- CEMS Master in International Management
- M.Sc. in International Trade, University of Economics, Prague
Martin Kuncl is a Senior Economist in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department at the Bank of Canada. His research interests include macro-financial linkages, financial crises and macro-prudential policies. Specific topics include financial innovation, interaction of monetary and macro-prudential policies, and government intervention in the mortgage market. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from CERGE-EI.
Staff analytical notes
The uneven economic consequences of COVID 19: A structural analysisUsing a structural model, we study the economic consequences of the COVID-19 shock. The uneven consequences, such as higher unemployment among young households, amplify the negative implications for the macroeconomy, household vulnerabilities and consumption inequality. Government support programs have stimulated the economy and lowered inequality and medium-term vulnerabilities.
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 updateWe expect potential output growth to be higher than in the October 2020 reassessment. By 2024, growth will be slightly above its average growth from 2010 to 2019. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate continues to lie in the range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.
Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in CanadaDuring the period of 2008 to 2012, the rules for government-backed mortgage insurance were tightened on four occasions. In this note, we estimate the effects through a simple econometric exercise using a vector error-correction model (VECM).
Staff discussion papers
The Canadian Neutral Rate of Interest through the Lens of an Overlapping-Generations ModelWe use a small open economy model with overlapping generations to evaluate secular dynamics of the neutral rate in Canada from 1980 to 2018. We find that changes in both foreign and domestic factors resulted in a protracted decline in the neutral rate.
Staff working papers
Monetary Policy and the Persistent Aggregate Effects of Wealth RedistributionMonetary policy in the presence of nominal debt and labour supply heterogeneity creates a policy trade-off: a short-term economic stimulus leads to persistently reduced output over the medium term. Price-level targeting weakens this trade-off and is better able to stabilize inflation and output than inflation targeting.
Loan Insurance, Market Liquidity, and Lending StandardsWe examine loan insurance—credit risk transfer upon origination—in a model in which lenders can screen, learn loan quality over time, and can sell loans. Some lenders with low screening ability insure, benefiting from higher market liquidity of insured loans while forgoing the option to exploit future information about loan quality.
Fragility of Resale Markets for Securitized Assets and Policy of Asset PurchasesMarkets for securitized assets were characterized by high liquidity prior to the recent financial crisis and by a sudden market dry-up at the onset of the crisis. A general equilibrium model with heterogeneous investment opportunities and information frictions predicts that, in boom periods or mild recessions, the degree of adverse selection in resale markets for securitized assets is limited because of the reputation-based guarantees by asset originators.
Securitization under Asymmetric Information over the Business CycleThis paper studies the efficiency of financial intermediation through securitization in a model with heterogeneous investment projects and asymmetric information about the quality of securitized assets. I show that when retaining part of the risk, the issuer of securitized assets may credibly signal its quality.
- “Securitization under Asymmetric Information over the Business Cycle”, European Economic Review, Volume 111, January 2019, Pages 237-256.