Michael Francis is the Director of the Emerging Markets Division of the International Department. His primary interests lie within the field of international macroeconomics and trade. He has broad a range of emerging and advanced economy experience and has worked on G7 and G20 matters. Before joining the Bank of Canada, Michael lectured in economics at the University of Canberra, Australian National University and Carleton University. He has held temporary appointments at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific as well as at the Canadian Department of Finance. Michael holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Carleton University in Ottawa.
This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.
Since the global financial crisis, advanced-economy wage growth has been generally low relative to past recoveries, especially after accounting for the evolution of labour market conditions over this period. This paper investigates a variety of potential explanations for this weakness, drawing on findings from the literature as well as analysis of recent labour market data in advanced economies.
This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.
This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019.
Global trade growth has been weak during the period following the 2007–09 financial crisis. This is an important development for Canada, given the Canadian economy's high degree of openness to trade. This article investigates some of the factors behind the slowdown in global trade and finds that the weakness of global demand and its changing composition, increased protectionism and diminishing incentives to expand trade have all played a role. Some of these factors are likely to have only a temporary effect on trade growth, but others could be more long-lasting.
“India and the Global Demand for Commodities: Is There an Elephant in the Room?” in Light the Lamp: Papers on World Trade and Investment in Memory of Bijit Bora, Christopher Findlay and David Parsons (eds) (Singapore, World Scientific Publishing Co, 2010) pp 117-177. Also published as a Bank of Canada Discussion Paper 08-18 (With Corinne Luu).
“Institutional Reform, Trade and Growth: The Experiences of India and China in a Global Economy,” in Economic Reforms in India and China – Emerging issues and challenges, B Sudhakara Reddy (ed), (Delhi, Sage Publications, 2009), pp 61- 87. (With B Desroches and F. Painchaud).
“Review of T. Tietenberg, ‘Environmental Economics and Policy,’” Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol. 45 no. 4 (2001): 468-470.