Michael Francis is the Director of the Emerging Markets Division of the International Department. His primary interests lie within the field of international macroeconomics and trade. He has broad a range of emerging and advanced economy experience and has worked on G7 and G20 matters. Before joining the Bank of Canada, Michael lectured in economics at the University of Canberra, Australian National University and Carleton University. He has held temporary appointments at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific as well as at the Canadian Department of Finance. Michael holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Carleton University in Ottawa.
Staff Analytical Notes
This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.
Since the global financial crisis, advanced-economy wage growth has been generally low relative to past recoveries, especially after accounting for the evolution of labour market conditions over this period. This paper investigates a variety of potential explanations for this weakness, drawing on findings from the literature as well as analysis of recent labour market data in advanced economies.
This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.
This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019.
Staff Discussion Papers
After 10 years of impressive growth, India is now the fourth largest economy in the world. Yet, to date, India's impact on global commodity markets has been muted. The authors examine how India's domestic and trade policies have distorted and constrained its demand for commodities.
Staff Working Papers
Over the past 15 years, long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1970s. This paper explores possible shifts in global savings and investment that have led to this fall in the world real interest rate.
Conventional wisdom holds that institutional changes and trade liberalization are two main sources of growth in per capita income around the world.
The author explores the role of governance mechanisms as a means of reducing financial fragility. First, he develops a simple theoretical general-equilibrium model in which instability arises due to an agency problem resulting from a conflict of interest between the borrower and lender.
Chapters in books
- “India and the Global Demand for Commodities: Is There an Elephant in the Room?” in Light the Lamp: Papers on World Trade and Investment in Memory of Bijit Bora, Christopher Findlay and David Parsons (eds) (Singapore, World Scientific Publishing Co, 2010) pp 117-177. Also published as a Bank of Canada Discussion Paper 08-18 (With Corinne Luu).
- “Institutional Reform, Trade and Growth: The Experiences of India and China in a Global Economy,” in Economic Reforms in India and China – Emerging issues and challenges, B Sudhakara Reddy (ed), (Delhi, Sage Publications, 2009), pp 61- 87. (With B Desroches and F. Painchaud).
- “Review of T. Tietenberg, ‘Environmental Economics and Policy,’” Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol. 45 no. 4 (2001): 468-470.
- “Governance and Financial Fragility,” Economic Papers, Vol. 23, no. 4 (2004): 386-395.
- “Trade and the Enforcement of Environmental Property Rights,” Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, vol. 14, no. 3 (2005): 281-298.
- “World Real Interest Rates: A Global Savings and Investment Perspective,” Applied Economics, Vol. 42, no. 22 (2010): 2801-2816.