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110 Results

Reaching for yield or resiliency? Explaining the shift in Canadian pension plan portfolios

“Reach for yield”—This is the commonly heard explanation for why pension plans shift their portfolios toward alternative assets. But we show that the new portfolios also hold more bonds, offer lower average returns and produce smaller and less volatile solvency deficits. These shifts are part of a broader strategy to reduce solvency risk.

Household financial vulnerabilities and physical climate risks

Staff Analytical Note 2021-19 Thibaut Duprey, Colin Jones, Callie Symmers, Geneviève Vallée
Natural disasters occur more often than before, potentially exposing households to financial distress. We study the intersection between household financial vulnerabilities and severe weather events.

Canadian job postings in digital sectors during COVID-19

Staff Analytical Note 2021-18 Alejandra Bellatin, Gabriela Galassi
Digital technologies have helped maintain economic activity while allowing people to remain physically distant throughout the COVID-19 crisis. This note shows that the number of online postings for jobs related to the production of digital technologies in Canada decreased less than the number for other jobs and recovered more quickly after lockdowns were lifted.

Exploring the potential benefits of inflation overshooting

Staff Analytical Note 2021-16 Robert Amano, Marc-André Gosselin, Kurt See
After a period with the interest rate at the effective lower bound, temporarily overshooting inflation may offer important economic benefits. This may be especially true for vulnerable segments of the population, such as workers with low attachment to the labour force and the long-term unemployed.

BoC–BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s new in 2021?

Staff Analytical Note 2021-15 David Beers, Elliot Jones, Zacharie Quiviger, John Walsh
The BoC–BoE database of sovereign debt defaults, published and updated annually by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, provides comprehensive estimates of stocks of government obligations in default.

Small and smaller: How the economic outlook of small firms relates to size

Staff Analytical Note 2021-14 Chris D'Souza, James Fudurich, Farrukh Suvankulov
Firms with fewer than 100 workers employ about 65 percent of the total labour force in Canada. An online survey experiment was conducted with firms of this size in Canada in 2018–19. We compare the responses of small and micro firms to explore how their characteristics and economic outlooks relate to their size.

Analyzing supply and demand for business loans using microdata from the Senior Loan Officer Survey

Staff Analytical Note 2021-13 Dylan Hogg
Both supply and demand factors help determine the level of business lending in the economy, but most data show only their combined effect on prices and quantities. Using the Bank of Canada’s Senior Loan Officer Survey microdata on financial institutions’ lending conditions and demand, we separate supply from demand effects.

COVID-19 crisis: Liquidity management at Canada’s largest public pension funds

We examine how the eight largest Canadian public pension funds managed liquidity during the market turmoil in March 2020. The funds were generally resilient to large demands for liquidity and relied heavily on Canada's core funding markets.

Detecting exuberance in house prices across Canadian cities

Staff Analytical Note 2021-9 Ugochi Emenogu, Cars Hommes, Mikael Khan
We introduce a model to detect periods of extrapolative house price expectations across Canadian cities. The House Price Exuberance Indicator can be updated on a quarterly basis to support the Bank of Canada’s broader assessment of housing market imbalances.

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update

We expect potential output growth to be higher than in the October 2020 reassessment. By 2024, growth will be slightly above its average growth from 2010 to 2019. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate continues to lie in the range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.
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