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117 Results

Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy

Staff Working Paper 2023-60 Agostina Brinatti, Xing Guo
We study how the tightening of US immigration policy affects the Canadian economy and American workers. After the reduction in H-1B visa admissions in 2017, more immigrants came to Canada, and Canadian firms expanded their employment, sales and exports. The close trade link between the United States and Canada dampens the benefit American workers derive from this policy change.

Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation

We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.

Immigration and Provision of Public Goods: Evidence at the Local Level in the U.S.

Staff Working Paper 2023-57 Anna Maria Mayda, Mine Z. Senses, Walter Steingress
Using U.S. county-level data from 1990 to 2010, we study the causal impact of immigration on the provision of local public goods. We uncover substantial heterogeneity across immigrants with different skills and immigrants of different generations, which leads to unequal fiscal effects across U.S. counties.

How Far Do Canadians Need to Travel to Access Cash?

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-28 Heng Chen, Daneal O’Habib, Hongyu Xiao
This paper develops a travel-based metric to measure Canadians’ access to cash from automated banking machines (ABMs) and financial institution branches. We find that, overall, access to cash remained stable between 2019 and 2022. The total number of ABMs in Canada increased by 3.7% and the total number of branches decreased by 5.2% during that period.

Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy

Staff Working Paper 2023-52 Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, Kurt See
We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation.

Labour Supply and Firm Size

Staff Working Paper 2023-47 Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail, Emircan Yurdagul
This paper documents a systematic pattern of how wages, hours and their relationship vary across firms of different sizes. Using a model with heterogeneous firms and workers, we show how the interplay between wages, hours and firm size affect worker sorting and inequality.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J3, J31

Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Staff Working Paper 2023-29 Matteo Cacciatore, Stefano Gnocchi, Daniela Hauser
We estimate the effects of economic uncertainty on time use and discuss its macroeconomic implications. We develop a model to demonstrate that substitution between market and non-market work provides an additional insurance margin to households, weakening precautionary savings and labour supply and lowering aggregate demand, ultimately amplifying the contractionary effects of uncertainty.

Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update

Staff Analytical Note 2023-7 Erik Ens, Kurt See, Corinne Luu
We enhance benchmarks for assessing strength in the Canadian labour market. We find the labour market remains tight despite recent strong increases in labour supply, including among prime-working-age women. We also assess the anticipated easing in labour conditions in a context of high population growth.
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