Bio

Hélène Desgagnés is Director of the International Model Development Division of the International Economic Analysis Department (INT). Prior to joining INT, she worked in the Financial Stability and Canadian Economic Analysis Departments where she contributed to the development of ToTEM III, the Bank’s large dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the Canadian economy.

Research Field(s): Business Cycles Macroeconomics Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Staff analytical notes

Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2025 update

Staff Analytical Note 2025-16 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Ingomar Krohn, Jan David Schneider
We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from the range assessed in 2024.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update

Staff Analytical Note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon
We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

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Staff discussion papers

COVID-19 and Financial Stability: Practice Ahead of Theory

Staff Discussion Paper 2022-18 Jing Yang, Hélène Desgagnés, Grzegorz Halaj, Yaz Terajima
The COVID-19 pandemic uncovered policy challenges related to the economic measures that were taken to support the economy. Two years later, we attempt to identify the broader impact of these measures and research that needs to follow.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, E6, E61, G, G2, G21, H, H3, H8, H84

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Staff working papers

The Rise of Non-Regulated Financial Intermediaries in the Housing Sector and its Macroeconomic Implications

Staff Working Paper 2017-36 Hélène Desgagnés
I examine the impact of non-regulated lenders in the mortgage market using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. My model features two types of financial intermediaries that differ in three ways: (i) only regulated intermediaries face a capital requirement, (ii) non-regulated intermediaries finance themselves by selling securities and cannot accept deposits, and (iii) non-regulated intermediaries face a more elastic demand.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E47, E6, E60, G, G2, G21, G23, G28

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Technical reports

ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis

Technical Report No. 119 Paul Corrigan, Hélène Desgagnés, José Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk, Wataru Miyamoto, Yang Zhang
ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Housing, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, E6, E62, E65, F, F4, F40, F41, G, G5, G51

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