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37 Results

Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy

Staff Working Paper 2023-60 Agostina Brinatti, Xing Guo
We study how the tightening of US immigration policy affects the Canadian economy and American workers. After the reduction in H-1B visa admissions in 2017, more immigrants came to Canada, and Canadian firms expanded their employment, sales and exports. The close trade link between the United States and Canada dampens the benefit American workers derive from this policy change.

Immigration and Provision of Public Goods: Evidence at the Local Level in the U.S.

Staff Working Paper 2023-57 Anna Maria Mayda, Mine Z. Senses, Walter Steingress
Using U.S. county-level data from 1990 to 2010, we study the causal impact of immigration on the provision of local public goods. We uncover substantial heterogeneity across immigrants with different skills and immigrants of different generations, which leads to unequal fiscal effects across U.S. counties.

Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy

Staff Working Paper 2023-52 Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, Kurt See
We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation.

Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2023 update

Staff Analytical Note 2023-7 Erik Ens, Kurt See, Corinne Luu
We enhance benchmarks for assessing strength in the Canadian labour market. We find the labour market remains tight despite recent strong increases in labour supply, including among prime-working-age women. We also assess the anticipated easing in labour conditions in a context of high population growth.

Demographic Origins of the Decline in Labor’s Share

Staff Working Paper 2023-20 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short
Declining labour market dynamism of workers results in an increasing wedge between their earnings and their marginal product as they age. This wedge and the demographic shift in the earnings shares of older workers can account for 59% of the decline in labor’s share of earnings in the United States.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D3, D33, E, E2, E25, J, J1, J3, J6, J62

Canada’s Beveridge curve and the outlook for the labour market

Staff Analytical Note 2022-18 Alexander Lam
Canada’s labour market is tight but beginning to ease. Unemployment will likely rise in turn, but the economy can avoid a recessionary surge given current conditions. Higher unemployment would nonetheless be material, especially for those directly impacted.

Has wage setting changed in Canada? Evidence from the pre-pandemic 2020 Wage-Setting Survey

Staff Analytical Note 2022-10 David Amirault, Sarah Miller, Matthieu Verstraete
Just before the pandemic began, the Bank of Canada conducted the 2020 Wage-Setting Survey. The goal was to explore the unusual trend of subdued wage growth in 2018 and 2019 despite a tightening in the labour market. Although this wage puzzle was beginning to resolve at the time of the survey, results highlight changes in several factors that may have important impacts on wage dynamics.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Labour markets JEL Code(s): J, J3, J31, J32, J33, J6, J63

Benchmarks for assessing labour market health

Staff Analytical Note 2022-2 Erik Ens, Corinne Luu, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee
We propose a range of benchmarks for assessing labour market strength for monetary policy. This work builds on a previous framework that considers how diverse and segmented the labour market is. We apply these benchmarks to the Canadian labour market and find that it has more than recovered from the COVID-19 shock.

Job Applications and Labour Market Flows

Staff Working Paper 2021-49 Serdar Birinci, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee
Although the number of job applications has risen, job-finding rates remain relatively unchanged while job-separation rates have significantly declined. Rather than raising the probability of finding a job, we find that a rise in applications raises the probability of finding a good match, as evidenced by the decline in separation rates.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J6, J63, J64
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