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19 Results

Persistent Debt and Business Cycles in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity

Staff Working Paper 2023-17 Aubhik Khan, Soyoung Lee
We examine the role of debt in amplifying and propagating recessions. Firms’ debt adjustment makes recessions deeper but makes expansions gradual. In particular, when the aggregate business leverage is ten percentage points above average, the half-life of the recovery doubles.

Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics

Staff Working Paper 2022-50 Martin Harding, Jesper Lindé, Mathias Trabandt
We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. Our model can generate more sizable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model when inflation is high.

Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK

Staff Working Paper 2021-55 Sushant Acharya, Edouard Challe, Keshav Dogra
We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. In the model, the central bank has an incentive to reduce consumption inequality in addition to keeping economic activity at its efficient level and inflation stable.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E30, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63

An Optimal Macroprudential Policy Mix for Segmented Credit Markets

Staff Working Paper 2021-31 Jelena Zivanovic
How can macroprudential policy and monetary policy stabilize segmented credit markets? Is there a trade-off between financial stability and price stability? I use a theoretical model to evaluate the performance of alternative policies and find the optimal mix of macroprudential and monetary policy in response to aggregate shocks.

ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis

ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution.

Understanding the Cross‐Country Effects of US Technology Shocks

Staff Working Paper 2017-23 Thuy Lan Nguyen, Wataru Miyamoto
Business cycles are substantially correlated across countries. Yet most existing models are not able to generate substantial transmission through international trade. We show that the nature of such transmission depends fundamentally on the features determining the responsiveness of labor supply and labor demand to international relative prices.

ToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model

This report provides a detailed technical description of an updated version of the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM II), which replaced ToTEM (Murchison and Rennison 2006) in June 2011 as the Bank of Canada’s quarterly projection model for Canada.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, F, F4, F41

The Sensitivity of Producer Prices to Exchange Rates: Insights from Micro Data

Staff Working Paper 2012-20 Shutao Cao, Wei Dong, Ben Tomlin
This paper studies the sensitivity of Canadian producer prices to the Canada-U.S. exchange rate. Using a unique product-level price data set, we estimate and analyze the impact of movements in the exchange rate on both domestic and export producer prices.
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