Rodrigo Sekkel is the director in the Monetary Policy and Financial Studies division of the Canadian Economic Analysis department. His research interests are empirical macroeconomics and finance. Specific topics include forecasting, identification of the dynamic effects of monetary policy, and macroeconomic volatility. Rodrigo received his PhD in economics from Johns Hopkins University.
Staff analytical notes
Staff discussion papers
Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic LiteratureCentral banks face considerable uncertainty when conducting monetary policy. The COVID-19 pandemic brought this issue back to the forefront of policy discussions. We draw from academic literature to review key sources of uncertainty and how they affect the conduct of monetary policy.
Staff working papers
Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and ForecastsWe present a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada’s staff economic projections. We then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those from commonly used time-series models estimated with real-time data and with forecasts from other professional forecasters and provide standard bias tests.
Changes in Monetary Regimes and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks: Narrative Evidence from CanadaWe use narrative evidence along with a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections from 1974 to 2015 to construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks and estimate the effects of monetary policy in Canada.
The Global Financial Cycle, Monetary Policies and Macroprudential Regulations in Small, Open EconomiesThis paper analyzes the implications of the global financial cycle for conventional and unconventional monetary policies and macroprudential policy in small, open economies such as Canada. The paper starts by summarizing recent work on financial cycles and their growing correlation across borders.
- “Central Bank Forecasting: a Survey”,
(with Carola Binder), Journal of Economic Surveys, forthcoming.
- “Introducing the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Database”,
(with Julien Champagne and Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35, no. 1 (2020), 114-129.
- “Changes in Monetary Regimes and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks: Narrative Evidence from Canada”,
(with Julien Champagne), Journal of Monetary Economics, (2018), 99, 72-87.
- “The Real-Time Properties of the Bank of Canada's Staff Output Gap Estimates”,
(with Julien Champagne and Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 50, no. 6 (2018): 1167-1188.
- “The Global Financial Cycle, Monetary Policies and Macroprudential Regulations in Small, Open Economies”.
(with Gregory Bauer, Gurnain Pasricha and Yaz Terajima), Canadian Public Policy, 44, no. 2 (2018): 81-99.
- “Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters”,
(with Soojin Jo), Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, (2017): 1-11.
- “Model Confidence Sets and Forecast Combination”,
(with Jon Samuels), International Journal of Forecasting, 33, no. 1 (2017): 48-60.
- “A Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian GDP Growth”,
(with Tony Chernis), Empirical Economics , (2017): 1-18.
- “Balance Sheets of Financial Intermediaries: Do They Forecast Economic Activity?”. International Journal of Forecasting , 31, no. 2 (2015): 263-275.
- “International Spillovers of Policy Uncertainty”,
(with Stefan Klößner), Economics Letters , 124, no. 3 (2014): 508-512.
- “International Evidence on Bond Risk Premia”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 35, no. 1 (2011): 174-181.