Olena Kostyshyna is a Research Advisor in the Canadian Economic Analysis (CEA) Department. Her research interests include macroeconomics, labour economics, experimental economics and survey expectations. Prior to joining the Bank, Olena held academic position at the Portland State University in the USA. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Simon Fraser University.
Using a controlled macroeconomic experiment, we compare monetary policy rules that differ in how much they look through inflation: a Lean-Against policy with strong response to inflation and a Look-Through policy with less strong response. We combine each rule with communication protocols that vary the information the central bank releases about its policy response.
How do import tariffs affect retail prices? We combine daily product-level posted prices from seven major Canadian retailers with product-level tariff exposure to estimate tariff effects. Prices of tariffed goods rose gradually, peaking at 6% after three months, implying pass-through of roughly one quarter of the 25% tariff.
For six months in 2025, Canada imposed counter tariffs on a wide range of goods from the United States. This short and well defined episode offers a unique opportunity to examine how Canadian retailers adjust prices in response to tariffs—and how retailers’ expectations and transparency with consumers affect pricing decisions.
We analyze micro-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations through the lens of a heterogeneous-expectations model to study how inflation expectations form over the business cycle. We provide new insights into how households form expectations, documenting that forecasting behaviours, attention and noise in beliefs vary across socio-demographic groups and correlate with views about monetary policy.
We study food inflation rates for Canadian households during periods of low and high inflation from 2012Q4 to 2023Q4. Households experienced more varied inflation rates during the recent high inflation. Cumulative food inflation has been 2.2 percentage points higher for lower-income households than for highest-income households since the inflation surge.
“On the Evolution of Multiple Jobholding in Canada” (with Etienne Lale), Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 55 (2), p. 1095-1134, May 2022.
"Are Sunspots Learnable? An Experimental Investigation in a Simple Macroeconomic Model" (with Jasmina Arifovic and George Evans), Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 110, p. 1 -21, January 2020.
“Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Canada: Evidence from Micro-level Data” (with D. Brouillette and N. Kyui). 2018. Canadian Journal of Economics. 51(3), pages 968-1002.
