Helen Lao is a senior economist in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. Her responsibilities include forecast and analysis of inflation and house prices. Prior to joining the Bank, Helen was an economist at the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer for four years. Helen received her Master of Arts, Economics, from the University of Toronto.
We provide an updated evaluation of the value of various measures of core inflation that could be used in the conduct of monetary policy. We find that the Bank of Canada’s current preferred measures of core inflation—CPI-trim, CPI-median and CPI-common—continue to outperform alternative core measures across a range of criteria.
As economic slack continues to be absorbed and the labour market tightens, wage growth and inflation could increase faster than expected, which would suggest convexity in their Phillips curves. This note investigates whether there is convexity in the Phillips curves for Canadian wage growth and inflation by testing different empirical approaches over the post-inflation-targeting period.