Marc-André Gosselin was appointed Managing Director of the Bank’s Canadian Economic Analysis Department (CEA), effective March 11, 2019. In this capacity, Mr. Gosselin is responsible for the strategic direction and management of the department, which includes providing rigorous and timely analysis of economic conditions in Canada as well as advice on the conduct of monetary policy.
Previously, as Deputy Managing Director of the Financial Stability Department (FSD), Mr. Gosselin was responsible for the department’s work related to systemic risk assessment, stress testing and monetary policy. He was also the Senior Officer in FSD overseeing the Bank of Canada’s Financial System Review.
Mr. Gosselin joined the Bank in 1999 as an economist. Over the years, he has held increasingly senior positions, developing a particular expertise in macroeconomic and risk analysis.
Born in Montréal, Quebec, Mr. Gosselin holds a master’s degree in Applied Economics from Montréal’s École des Hautes Études Commerciales.
Staff Analytical Notes
We conduct a randomized information experiment leveraging the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We provide causal evidence that respondents revise both their short- and medium-term expectations of future house price growth in a way that is consistent with observed short-term momentum in house prices. However, empirically, house price growth tends to revert to its mean in the medium term.
Staff Working Papers
The workhorse DSGE model used for monetary policy evaluation is designed to capture business cycle fluctuations in an optimization-based format. It is commonplace to log-linearize models and express them with variables in deviation-from-steady-state format.
The inflation targeting (IT) regime is 17 years old. With practice of IT now in more than 21 countries, there is enough evidence gathered to take stock of the IT experience. In this paper, we analyze the inflation record of IT central banks.
Over the past few years, the ability of the United States to finance its current account deficit has been facilitated by massive purchases of U.S.
In this paper, the authors use polynomial adjustment cost (PAC) models to analyze and forecast the main components of the U.S. trade sector.
Traditional structural models cannot distinguish whether changes in activity are a function of altered expectations today or lagged responses to past plans. Polynomial-adjustment-cost (PAC) models remove this ambiguity by explicitly separating observed dynamic behaviour into movements that have been induced by changes in expectations, and responses to expectations, that have been delayed because of adjustment costs.
The authors describe the principal results obtained from a new method applied to the estimation of potential U.S. GDP.
This paper assesses the usefulness of consumer confidence indexes in forecasting aggregate consumer spending in the United States.
This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of factor models for Canadian inflation. This type of model was introduced and examined by Stock and Watson (1999a), who have shown that it is quite promising for forecasting U.S. inflation.