The Financial Origins of Non-fundamental Risk Staff Working Paper 2022-4 Sushant Acharya, Keshav Dogra, Sanjay Singh We explore the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk to the rest of the economy. We also consider whether policy can be used to reduce this risk—either by increasing the supply of publicly backed safe assets or by reducing the demand for safe assets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D5, D52, D8, D84, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G10, G12
Transition Scenarios for Analyzing Climate-Related Financial Risk Staff Discussion Paper 2022-1 Y.-H. Henry Chen, Erik Ens, Olivier Gervais, Hossein Hosseini, Craig Johnston, Serdar Kabaca, Miguel Molico, Sergey Paltsev, Alex Proulx, Argyn Toktamyssov Climate transition scenarios clarify climate-related risks to our economy and financial system. This paper summarizes key results of Canada-relevant scenarios developed in a pilot project on climate risk by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, D, D5, D58, E, E5, E50, O, O4, O44, P, P1, P18, Q, Q5, Q54
Firm Inattention and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy: A Text-Based Approach Staff Working Paper 2022-3 Wenting Song, Samuel Stern How much attention do firms pay to macroeconomic news? Through a novel text-based measure, two facts emerge. First, attention is polarized. Most firms either never or always pay attention to economic conditions. Second, it is countercyclical. During recessions, more firms pay attention, and firms pay greater attention to macroeconomic news. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E44, E5, E52
What Drives Bitcoin Fees? Using Segwit to Assess Bitcoin's Long-Run Sustainability Staff Working Paper 2022-2 Colin Brown, Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl We explore what drives transaction fees in the Bitcoin system and consider whether Bitcoin can remain tamper proof in the long run. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2
Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real Time Using Google Places Staff Working Paper 2022-1 Thibaut Duprey, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger, Artur Kotlicki, Soheil Baharian, T. R. Hurd The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for policy-makers to closely monitor disruptions to the retail and food business sectors. We present a new method to measure business opening and closing rates using real-time data from Google Places, the dataset behind the Google Maps service. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32
Best Before? Expiring Central Bank Digital Currency and Loss Recovery Staff Working Paper 2021-67 Charles M. Kahn, Maarten van Oordt, Yu Zhu We consider introducing an expiry date for offline digital currency balances. Consumers whose digital cash expired would automatically receive the funds back into their online account. This functionality could increase demand for digital cash, with the time to expiry playing a key role. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42
News-Driven International Credit Cycles Staff Working Paper 2021-66 Galip Kemal Ozhan This paper examines the implications of positive news about future asset values that turn out to be incorrect at a later date in an open economy model with banking. The model captures the patterns of bank credit and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000 and 2010. The model finds that the use of unconventional policies leads to a milder bust. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, F, F3, F32, F4, F41, G, G1, G15, G2, G21
Predicting the Demand for Central Bank Digital Currency: A Structural Analysis with Survey Data Staff Working Paper 2021-65 Jiaqi Li How much of a CBDC would Canadian households want to hold, and what design features of a CBDC would they care about? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58
Quantifying the Economic Benefits of Payments Modernization: the Case of the Large-Value Payment System Staff Working Paper 2021-64 Neville Arjani, Fuchun Li, Zhentong Lu Canada is undertaking a major initiative to modernize its payments ecosystem. The modernized ecosystem is expected to bring significant benefits to Canadian financial markets and the overall economy. We develop an empirical framework to quantify the economic benefits of modernizing the payment system in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, E, E4, E42, G, G1, G2, G28
Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking: Macroeconomic Benefits of a Cash-Like Design Staff Working Paper 2021-63 Jonathan Chiu, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini Should a CBDC be more like cash or bank deposits? An interest-bearing, cash-like CBDC not only makes payments more efficient but also increases total demand. This has positive effects on other transactions, inducing more deposit taking and lending and, thus, bank intermediation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58