Staff analytical notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.
231
result(s)
Ce que révèle une analyse sectorielle des dynamiques récentes de l’inflation au Canada
Staff Analytical Note 2016-7
Laurence Savoie-Chabot
Decomposing total inflation in Canada as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) into its key macroeconomic factors, as presented in the most recent Monetary Policy Report, is an interesting exercise that shows how the exchange rate pass-through, commodity prices and the output gap have influenced the evolution of the total inflation rate over time. This aggregate approach, however, may mask important sectoral changes.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31
Un examen plus approfondi des pressions salariales au Canada
Staff Analytical Note 2016-6
Dany Brouillette,
Laurence Savoie-Chabot
In this note, we provide a brief outline of the recent developments in wage measures in Canada. We then assess whether wage growth is consistent with its fundamentals.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J3,
J30
Implementing Market-Based Indicators to Monitor Vulnerabilities of Financial Institutions
Staff Analytical Note 2016-5
Cameron MacDonald,
Maarten van Oordt,
Robin Scott
This note introduces several market-based indicators and examines how they can further inform the Bank of Canada’s vulnerability assessment of Canadian financial institutions. Market-based indicators of leverage suggest that the solvency risk for major Canadian banks has increased since the beginning of the oil-price correction in the second half of 2014.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G10,
G2,
G21
April 2016 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output in Canada
Staff Analytical Note 2016-4
Andrew Agopsowicz,
Dany Brouillette,
Shutao Cao,
Natalia Kyui,
Pierre St-Amant
This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s 2016 annual reassessment of potential output growth, which is projected to be 1.5 per cent over 2016–18 and 1.6 per cent in 2019–20. This projection is weaker than the one presented in the April 2015 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Productivity
Canadian Labour Market Dispersion: Mind the (Shrinking) Gap
Staff Analytical Note 2016-3
David Amirault,
Naveen Rai
Shocks to a currency area can and often do have asymmetric impacts on its regions that, in the absence of perfect labour mobility, lead to gaps in relative labour market performance. Witness, for example, the effects of the 2008/09 recession and subsequent financial crisis in Europe on the dispersion of employment rates across the euro area – and to a lesser extent the United States.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
J,
J0,
J01,
R,
R2,
R23
Predictive Ability of Commodity Prices for the Canadian Dollar
Staff Analytical Note 2016-2
Kimberly Berg,
Pierre Guérin,
Yuko Imura
Recent sharp declines in commodity prices and the simultaneous depreciation of the Canadian dollar (CAD) relative to the U.S. dollar (USD) have rekindled an interest in the relationship between commodity prices and the CAD-USD exchange rate.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Exchange rates
The Complex Adjustment of the Canadian Economy to Lower Commodity Prices
Staff Analytical Note 2016-1
Julien Champagne,
Nikita Perevalov,
Hope Pioro,
Dany Brouillette,
Andrew Agopsowicz
In this analytical note, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the complex structural adjustment facing the Canadian economy following the commodity price decline since mid-2014. We quantify separately the impacts coming from the commodity sector restructuring and the broader effect of significantly lower terms of trade.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Exchange rates,
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E17,
E2,
E27,
E5,
E52,
J,
J2,
Q,
Q0,
Q00
Credit Cards: Disentangling the Dual Use of Borrowing and Spending
Staff Analytical Note 2015-3
Olga Bilyk,
Brian Peterson
Over the past 15 years, aggregate credit card balances have been increasing, except for a brief spell in the aftermath of the 2007–09 financial crisis. Determining whether the growing balances are due to increased usage of credit cards as a method of payment or whether they reflect increased short-term borrowing is challenging because aggregate balances are snapshots of charges on credit cards before households make their monthly payments.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Financial stability
Estimating Canada’s Effective Lower Bound
Staff Analytical Note 2015-2
Jonathan Witmer,
Jing Yang
In 2009, the Bank of Canada set its effective lower bound (ELB) at 25 basis points (bps). Given the recent experience of Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland and the euro area with negative interest rates, we examine the economics of negative interest rates and suggest that cash storage costs are the source of a negative lower bound on interest rates.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
D,
D5,
D53,
E,
E4,
E41,
E43,
E5,
E58