Russell Barnett is Senior Policy Director in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. In this capacity, he is a member of the senior leadership team overseeing the Bank's analysis of the Canadian economy and its research on monetary policy. In addition, he conducts analysis and research on current economic issues and monetary policy more generally. His primary interests include economic forecasting, international trade and labour markets.
Mr. Barnett began his career at the Department of Finance in 2002 as an Economist and then joined the Bank in 2005 as an Economist in the Canadian Projection and Model Development Division of the Research Department (now CEA). After spending 3 years working for the Parliamentary Budget Officer as Director, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, he returned to the Bank in December 2011 as the Assistant Chief of the United States Division in the International Economic Analysis Department. He subsequently became Policy Adviser in the same department and later Research Adviser in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department. In both these role, he led the respective departments’ contributions to the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
During and after the Great Recession of 2008–09, conventional monetary policy in the United States and many other advanced economies was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Several central banks implemented large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs, more commonly known as quantitative easing or QE, to provide additional monetary stimulus.
Since 2012, business investment growth has slowed considerably in advanced economies, averaging a little less than 2 per cent versus the 4 per cent growth rates experienced in the period leading up to crisis. Several recent studies have attributed a large part of the weakness in business investment to cyclical factors, including soft aggregate demand, and, to a lesser degree, heightened uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.
Canada’s international competitiveness has received increasing attention in recent years as exports have fallen short of expectations and Canada has lost market share. This paper asks whether the Bank of Canada’s current effective exchange rate measure, the CERI, is still an accurate measure of Canada’s international competitiveness.
Country market shares of U.S. non-energy imports have changed considerably since 2002, with varying volatility across three subperiods: pre-crisis (2002–07), crisis (2007–09) and post-crisis (2009–14). In this paper, we analyze market shares for four main trading partners of the United States (Canada, Mexico, China and Japan).
The Bank of Canada uses several short-term forecasting models for the monitoring of key foreign economies - the United States, the euro area, Japan and China. The design of the forecasting models used for each region is influenced by the level of detail required, as well as the timeliness and volatility of data. Forecasts from different models are typically combined to mitigate model uncertainty, and judgment is applied to the model forecasts to incorporate information that is not directly reflected in the most recent indicators.