Chen Fan

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Liquidity Management of Canadian Corporate Bond Mutual Funds: A Machine Learning Approach

Staff Analytical Note 2019-7 Rohan Arora, Chen Fan, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc
When redeeming shares for investors, bond fund managers must choose a mix of cash and bond sales to honour their commitments. This note uses machine learning algorithms to uncover new patterns in decisions fund managers make to meet redemptions.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23

Have Liquidity and Trading Activity in the Canadian Corporate Bond Market Deteriorated?

Staff Analytical Note 2018-31 Chen Fan, Sermin Gungor, Guillaume Nolin, Jun Yang
Since 2010, the liquidity of corporate bonds has improved on average, while their trading activity has remained stable. We find that the liquidity and trading activity of riskier bonds or bonds issued by firms in different sectors have been stable. However, the liquidity and trading activity of bonds issued by banks have improved. We observe short-lived episodes of deterioration in liquidity and trading activity.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14

Have Liquidity and Trading Activity in the Canadian Provincial Bond Market Deteriorated?

Staff Analytical Note 2018-30 Chen Fan, Sermin Gungor, Guillaume Nolin, Jun Yang
In recent years, the liquidity in the secondary market for Canadian provincial bonds was a concern for many market participants. We find that a proxy for the bid-ask spread has deteriorated modestly since 2010. However, a proxy for price impact as well as measures of trade size, the number of trades and turnover have been stable or improved since 2010. This holds for bonds issued by different provinces and for bonds of different ages and sizes. Alberta bonds provide an interesting case study: After the fall in oil prices in 2014–15, the province increased its borrowing in the bond market and its credit rating was downgraded. Yet trading activity for Alberta bonds increased significantly. Overall, we interpret the evidence as a sign of resilience in the provincial bond market.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14

Can the Canadian International Investment Position Stabilize a Slowing Economy?

Staff Analytical Note 2017-14 Maxime Leboeuf, Chen Fan
In this note, we find that valuation effects can act as an important stabilizer, strengthening Canada’s net external wealth when its economic outlook worsens relative to that of other countries.

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