Sermin Gungor

Principal Researcher

Sermin Gungor is a Principal Researcher at the Market Risks and Vulnerabilities division of the Financial Markets Department. Her research spans a diverse area of financial economics and econometrics, with a focus on asset pricing. Sermin holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Emory University and a MSc in Financial Economics and Econometrics from the University of Essex. She also received a bachelor’s degree in Economics from Marmara University. Her prior work experience includes a lecturer position in Istanbul Commerce University.

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Sermin Gungor

Principal Researcher
Financial Markets
Market Risks and Vulnerabilities

Bank of Canada
234 Wellington Street
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

Curriculum vitae

Latest

Have Liquidity and Trading Activity in the Canadian Corporate Bond Market Deteriorated?

Staff Analytical Note 2018-31 Chen Fan, Sermin Gungor, Guillaume Nolin, Jun Yang
Since 2010, the liquidity of corporate bonds has improved on average, while their trading activity has remained stable. We find that the liquidity and trading activity of riskier bonds or bonds issued by firms in different sectors have been stable. However, the liquidity and trading activity of bonds issued by banks have improved. We observe short-lived episodes of deterioration in liquidity and trading activity.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14

Have Liquidity and Trading Activity in the Canadian Provincial Bond Market Deteriorated?

Staff Analytical Note 2018-30 Chen Fan, Sermin Gungor, Guillaume Nolin, Jun Yang
In recent years, the liquidity in the secondary market for Canadian provincial bonds was a concern for many market participants. We find that a proxy for the bid-ask spread has deteriorated modestly since 2010. However, a proxy for price impact as well as measures of trade size, the number of trades and turnover have been stable or improved since 2010. This holds for bonds issued by different provinces and for bonds of different ages and sizes. Alberta bonds provide an interesting case study: After the fall in oil prices in 2014–15, the province increased its borrowing in the bond market and its credit rating was downgraded. Yet trading activity for Alberta bonds increased significantly. Overall, we interpret the evidence as a sign of resilience in the provincial bond market.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14

Government of Canada Securities in the Cash, Repo and Securities Lending Markets

Staff Discussion Paper 2018-4 Narayan Bulusu, Sermin Gungor
This paper documents the properties of Government of Canada securities in cash, repo and securities lending transactions over their life cycle. By tracking every security from issuance to maturity, we are able to highlight inter-linkages between the markets for cash and for specific securities.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Wholesale funding JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G21, G23

Has Liquidity in Canadian Government Bond Markets Deteriorated?

Staff Analytical Note 2017-10 Sermin Gungor, Jun Yang

This note presents measures of liquidity used by the Bank of Canada to monitor market conditions and discusses recent trends in Government of Canada (GoC) fixed-income market liquidity. Our results indicate that the Bank’s measures have improved since the financial crisis. Furthermore, GoC market liquidity deteriorated following several stressful events: the euro crisis in 2011, the taper tantrum in 2013 and the oil price shock in 2015. In all three cases, the deterioration remained within historical norms and liquidity returned to normal levels afterwards.

Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14
May 11, 2017

The Life Cycle of Government of Canada Bonds in Core Funding Markets

Data on the use of government securities in the repo, securities lending and cash markets suggest there are bond market clienteles in Canada. Shorter-term bonds are more prevalent in the repo market, while longer-maturity securities are more active in the securities lending market—consistent with the preferred habitat hypothesis. These results could help design better debt-management strategies and more-effective policies to maintain well-functioning financial markets.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): Debt Management, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G23

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Other

Other publications

  • "Multivariate Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency and Spanning with Large Number of Assets and Time-Varying Covariances"
    (with R. Luger), Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 34:2, 161-175, 2016.
  • “Bootstrap Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency with Multiple Portfolio Groupings”
    (with R. Luger), L'Actualité économique, 91, 35-65, 2015.
  • "Testing Linear Factor Pricing Models With Large Cross Sections: A Distribution-Free Approach"
    (with R. Luger), Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 31:1, 66-77, 2013.
  • "Exact Distribution-Free Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency"
    (with R. Luger), Journal of Empirical Finance, 16, 816-829, 2009.

Education

  • Ph. D. in Economics, Emory University, Atlanta, 2010
  • M.Sc. in Financial Economics and Econometrics, University of Essex, Essex, U.K., 2001
  • B.A. in Economics, Marmara University, Istanbul, Turkey, 2000

Research Interests

  • Financial economics
  • Asset pricing
  • Econometrics

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