Bio

Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc is a Principal Economist in the Market Risks and Vulnerabilities Division of the Financial Markets Department. Prior to his current role, he held various positions in the Financial Stability and Funds Management and Banking departments. Guillaume holds a M.A. in Economics from the Catholic University of Louvain (Belgium) and the PRM designation.


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Staff Analytical Notes

Creations and Redemptions in Fixed-Income Exchange-Traded Funds: A Shift from Bonds to Cash

The creation and redemption activity of fixed-income exchange-traded funds listed in the United States has shifted. Funds of established issuers have traditionally exchanged their shares for baskets of bonds. In contrast, young funds managed by new issuers tend to create and redeem their shares almost exclusively in cash. Cash transactions imply that new funds are taking on exposure to liquidity risk. This has implications for financial stability.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23

Bridging Canadian Business Lending and Market-Based Risk Measures

Staff Analytical Note 2019-26 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Maxime Leboeuf
Lending to business is central to economic growth because it supports investment by firms. Knowing how market participants view risk in the financial system can give the Bank of Canada information about future growth in business loans. In this note, we look at three market-based risk measures and find that sudden increases in the perception of risk in the Canadian banking system are associated with a weaker outlook for business loans and real gross domestic product.

Using Exchange-Traded Funds to Measure Liquidity in the Canadian Corporate Bond Market

Staff Analytical Note 2019-25 Rohan Arora, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Jabir Sandhu, Jun Yang
We introduce a new proxy for measuring corporate bond liquidity, using the price of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold corporate bonds. It measures the average liquidity across 900 corporate bonds every day, many more than other proxies used in previous Bank of Canada analysis. The new proxy nonetheless paints a very similar picture of liquidity conditions and confirms the previous findings: the liquidity of bonds has generally improved since 2010.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G14

Could Canadian Bond Funds Add Stress to the Financial System?

We create a hypothetical scenario to study the role bond funds play in intensifying shocks to the financial system. Using data from 2018 and 2007, we find that bond funds play a larger role now than they did in the past.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23

Liquidity Management of Canadian Corporate Bond Mutual Funds: A Machine Learning Approach

Staff Analytical Note 2019-7 Rohan Arora, Chen Fan, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc
When redeeming shares for investors, bond fund managers must choose a mix of cash and bond sales to honour their commitments. This note uses machine learning algorithms to uncover new patterns in decisions fund managers make to meet redemptions.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23

How do Canadian Corporate Bond Mutual Funds Meet Investor Redemptions?

Staff Analytical Note 2018-14 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Rohan Arora
When investors redeem their fund shares for cash, fixed-income fund managers can choose whether to draw on their liquid holdings or sell bonds in the secondary market. We analyze the liquidity-management decisions of Canadian corporate bond mutual funds, focusing on the strategies they use to meet investor redemptions.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23

Did Canadian Corporate Bond Funds Increase their Exposures to Risks?

Staff Analytical Note 2018-7 Rohan Arora, Nadeem Merali, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc
Canadian corporate bond mutual funds have rapidly increased in number and size in recent years. Their holdings have also become riskier, increasing their exposures to credit risk, interest rate risk and liquidity risk. We also briefly discuss financial stability implications.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23

Complementing the Credit Risk Assessment of Financial Counterparties with Market-Based Indicators

Staff Analytical Note 2017-15 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Maarten van Oordt
The Bank’s internal credit risk assessment abilities are regularly enhanced. In this note, we present a recent innovation that extends the set of market-based indicators used in the credit risk assessment of financial counterparties.

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Technical Reports

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