Staff analytical notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.
230
result(s)
Has Liquidity in Canadian Government Bond Markets Deteriorated?
Staff Analytical Note 2017-10
Sermin Gungor,
Jun Yang
This note presents measures of liquidity used by the Bank of Canada to monitor market conditions and discusses recent trends in Government of Canada (GoC) fixed-income market liquidity. Our results indicate that the Bank’s measures have improved since the financial crisis. Furthermore, GoC market liquidity deteriorated following several stressful events: the euro crisis in 2011, the taper tantrum in 2013 and the oil price shock in 2015. In all three cases, the deterioration remained within historical norms and liquidity returned to normal levels afterwards.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G12,
G14
Labour Force Participation: A Comparison of the United States and Canada
Staff Analytical Note 2017-9
James Ketcheson,
Natalia Kyui,
Benoit Vincent
This note explores the drivers behind the recent increase in the US participation rate in the labour market and assesses the likelihood of a similar gain in Canada. The growth in the US participation rate has largely been due to a pickup in the participation of prime-age workers following a post-recession decline.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J2,
J21
Wage Growth in Canada and the United States: Factors Behind Recent Weakness
Staff Analytical Note 2017-8
Dany Brouillette,
James Ketcheson,
Olena Kostyshyna,
Jonathan Lachaine
This note examines the relatively subdued pace of wage growth in Canada since the commodity price decline in 2014 and assesses whether the weakness is attributable to cyclical (e.g., labour market slack) or structural factors (e.g., resource reallocation and demographic change).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J3,
J30
A Structural Interpretation of the Recent Weakness in Business Investment
Staff Analytical Note 2017-7
Russell Barnett,
Rhys R. Mendes
Since 2012, business investment growth has slowed considerably in advanced economies, averaging a little less than 2 per cent versus the 4 per cent growth rates experienced in the period leading up to crisis. Several recent studies have attributed a large part of the weakness in business investment to cyclical factors, including soft aggregate demand, and, to a lesser degree, heightened uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Domestic demand and components,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E22,
E3,
E37
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity, Inflation and Unemployment: New Evidence Using Micro‐Level Data
Staff Analytical Note 2017-6
Dany Brouillette,
Natalia Kyui
Recent evidence suggests that the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in the Canadian labour market has risen following the 2008–09 recession (see Brouillette, Kostyshyna and Kyui 2016).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E3,
E31,
J,
J3,
J30
April 2017 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output Growth in Canada
Staff Analytical Note 2017-5
Andrew Agopsowicz,
Bassirou Gueye,
Natalia Kyui,
Youngmin Park,
Mohanad Salameh,
Ben Tomlin
This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s annual reassessment of potential output growth, conducted for the April 2017 Monetary Policy Report. Potential output growth is projected to increase from 1.3 per cent in 2017 to 1.6 per cent by 2020.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E0,
E00,
E2,
E22,
E23,
E24,
E3,
E37,
E6
A Canada-US Comparison of Labour Market Conditions
Staff Analytical Note 2017-4
Dany Brouillette,
Katerina Gribbin,
Justin-Damien Guénette,
James Ketcheson,
Olena Kostyshyna,
Jonathan Lachaine,
Colin Scarffe
In this note, we provide a brief comparison of the recent developments in the labour markets in Canada and the United States. Our analysis indicates that slack remains in the Canadian labour market, while the US labour market is close to full employment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J2,
J21,
J22,
J23
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth
Staff Analytical Note 2017-3
Patrick Alexander,
Michael Francis,
Christopher Hajzler,
Patrick Kirby,
Louis Poirier,
Sri Thanabalasingam,
Kristina Hess
This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
International topics,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E10,
E2,
E20,
O,
O4
What Explains the Recent Increase in Canadian Corporate Bond Spreads
Staff Analytical Note 2017-2
Maxime Leboeuf,
James Pinnington
The spread between the yield of a corporate bond and the yield of a similar Government of Canada bond reflects compensation for possible default by the issuing firm and compensation for additional risks beyond default.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G12