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Household financial vulnerabilities and physical climate risks

Staff Analytical Note 2021-19 Thibaut Duprey, Colin Jones, Callie Symmers, Geneviève Vallée
Natural disasters occur more often than before, potentially exposing households to financial distress. We study the intersection between household financial vulnerabilities and severe weather events.

Canadian job postings in digital sectors during COVID-19

Staff Analytical Note 2021-18 Alejandra Bellatin, Gabriela Galassi
Digital technologies have helped maintain economic activity while allowing people to remain physically distant throughout the COVID-19 crisis. This note shows that the number of online postings for jobs related to the production of digital technologies in Canada decreased less than the number for other jobs and recovered more quickly after lockdowns were lifted.

The Bank of Canada’s “Horse Race” of Alternative Monetary Policy Frameworks: Some Interim Results from Model Simulations

Staff Discussion Paper 2021-13 José Dorich, Rhys R. Mendes, Yang Zhang
Bank of Canada staff are running a “horse race” of alternative monetary policy frameworks in the lead-up to 2021 renewal of the Bank’s monetary policy framework. This paper summarizes some interim results of model simulations from their research.

The uneven economic consequences of COVID 19: A structural analysis

Staff Analytical Note 2021-17 Martin Kuncl, Austin McWhirter, Alexander Ueberfeldt
Using a structural model, we study the economic consequences of the COVID-19 shock. The uneven consequences, such as higher unemployment among young households, amplify the negative implications for the macroeconomy, household vulnerabilities and consumption inequality. Government support programs have stimulated the economy and lowered inequality and medium-term vulnerabilities.

Monetary Policy and the Persistent Aggregate Effects of Wealth Redistribution

Staff Working Paper 2021-38 Martin Kuncl, Alexander Ueberfeldt
Monetary policy in the presence of nominal debt and labour supply heterogeneity creates a policy trade-off: a short-term economic stimulus leads to persistently reduced output over the medium term. Price-level targeting weakens this trade-off and is better able to stabilize inflation and output than inflation targeting.

Stressed but not Helpless: Strategic Behaviour of Banks Under Adverse Market Conditions

Staff Working Paper 2021-35 Grzegorz Halaj, Sofia Priazhkina
Our stress-testing tool considers banks under stress that can strategically manage their balance sheets. Using confidential Canadian supervisory data, we assess whether bank behaviour to maximize shareholder value can amplify a hypothetical stress scenario.

An Optimal Macroprudential Policy Mix for Segmented Credit Markets

Staff Working Paper 2021-31 Jelena Zivanovic
How can macroprudential policy and monetary policy stabilize segmented credit markets? Is there a trade-off between financial stability and price stability? I use a theoretical model to evaluate the performance of alternative policies and find the optimal mix of macroprudential and monetary policy in response to aggregate shocks.

ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis

ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution.

An Exploration of First Nations Reserves and Access to Cash

Staff Discussion Paper 2021-8 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Kim Huynh, Daneal O’Habib
Adequate cash distribution is one the Bank of Canada’s core interests. Canadians’ ability to access cash influences the Bank’s thinking on issuing a central bank digital currency. We provide a perspective on these issues by exploring access of First Nations reserves to cash.

Shaping the future: Policy shocks and the GDP growth distribution

Can central bank and government policies impact the risks around the outlook for GDP growth? We find that fiscal stimulus makes strong GDP growth more likely—even more so when monetary policy is constrained—rather than weak GDP growth less likely. Thus, fiscal stimulus should accelerate the recovery phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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