Bio

Brian Peterson is a Senior Policy Advisor in the Financial Stability Department. His primary interests include housing and household finance, macroprudential regulation and the assessment of risks to financial stability. Brian was previously an Assistant Professor at Indiana University. He obtained his PhD in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania.

Research Field(s): Business Cycles Household Finance Housing Macroeconomic Theory Monetary Economics

Staff analytical notes

Home Equity Extraction and Household Spending in Canada

Staff Analytical Note 2019-27 Anson T. Y. Ho, Mikael Khan, Monica Mow, Brian Peterson
We use rich microdata to measure home equity extraction in Canada and track its evolution over time. We find home equity extraction has been rising in recent years and has likely contributed materially to dynamics in household spending.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, G, G2, G20

Interest Rate and Renewal Risk for Mortgages

Staff Analytical Note 2018-18 Olga Bilyk, Cameron MacDonald, Brian Peterson
In this note, we explore two types of risk faced by holders of mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) in the context of rising interest rates: interest rate risk and renewal risk.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, E5, G, G2, G21, G28

Credit Cards: Disentangling the Dual Use of Borrowing and Spending

Staff Analytical Note 2015-3 Olga Bilyk, Brian Peterson
Over the past 15 years, aggregate credit card balances have been increasing, except for a brief spell in the aftermath of the 2007–09 financial crisis. Determining whether the growing balances are due to increased usage of credit cards as a method of payment or whether they reflect increased short-term borrowing is challenging because aggregate balances are snapshots of charges on credit cards before households make their monthly payments.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability

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Staff working papers

Unregulated Lending, Mortgage Regulations and Monetary Policy

Staff Working Paper 2022-28 Ugochi Emenogu, Brian Peterson
This paper evaluates the effectiveness of macroprudential policies when regulations are uneven across mortgage lender types. We look at credit tightening that results from macroprudential regulations and examine how much of it is counteracted by credit shifting to unregulated lenders. We also study the impact of monetary policy tightening when some lenders are unregulated.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E50, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G23, G28

The Impact of Macroprudential Housing Finance Tools in Canada: 2005–10

Staff Working Paper 2016-41 Jason Allen, Timothy Grieder, Brian Peterson, Tom Roberts
This paper combines loan-level administrative data with household-level survey data to analyze the impact of recent macroprudential policy changes in Canada using a microsimulation model of mortgage demand of first-time homebuyers.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, D, D1, D14, G, G2, G28

Fooled by Search: Housing Prices, Turnover and Bubbles

Staff Working Paper 2012-3 Brian Peterson
his paper develops and estimates a model to explain the behaviour of house prices in the United States. The main finding is that over 70% of the increase in house prices relative to trend during the increase of house prices in the United States from 1995 to 2006 can be explained by a pricing mechanism where market participants are ‘Fooled by Search.’
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, R, R2, R21

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Technical reports

Household Risk Assessment Model

Technical Report No. 106 Brian Peterson, Tom Roberts
Household debt can be an important source of vulnerability to the financial system. This technical report describes the Household Risk Assessment Model (HRAM) that has been developed at the Bank of Canada to stress test household balance sheets at the individual level.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, C63, C65, D, D0, D1, D14

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Bank publications

Bank of Canada Review articles

February 23, 2012

Medium-Term Fluctuations in Canadian House Prices

Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2011-2012 Brian Peterson, Yi Zheng
This article draws on theory and empirical evidence to examine a number of factors behind movements in Canadian house prices. It begins with an overview of the movements in house prices in Canada, using regional data to highlight factors that influence prices over the long run. It then turns to the central theme, that there are medium-run movements in prices not accounted for by long-run factors. Drawing on recent Bank of Canada research, the article discusses several factors behind these medium-run movements, including interest rates, expected price appreciation and market liquidity. The article concludes by identifying areas for future research that would further our understanding of fluctuations in house prices.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): R, R2, R21, R3, R31

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