Louis Morel

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Staff Analytical Notes

The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye

Staff Analytical Note 2016-13 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Louis Morel
Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.

Staff Discussion Papers

A Comprehensive Evaluation of Measures of Core Inflation for Canada

Staff Discussion Paper 2015-12 Mikael Khan, Louis Morel, Patrick Sabourin
This paper evaluates the usefulness of various measures of core inflation for the conduct of monetary policy. Traditional exclusion-based measures of core inflation are found to perform relatively poorly across a range of evaluation criteria, in part due to their inability to filter unanticipated transitory shocks.

Sluggish Exports in Advanced Economies: How Much Is Due to Demand?

Staff Discussion Paper 2015-3 Louis Morel
Exports in advanced economies have been relatively sluggish since 2011, growing at a much slower pace than observed before the global financial crisis.

Forecasting Short-Term Real GDP Growth in the Euro Area and Japan Using Unrestricted MIDAS Regressions

Staff Discussion Paper 2014-3 Maxime Leboeuf, Louis Morel
In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area and Japan. This new tool, which uses unrestricted mixed-data sampling (U-MIDAS) regressions, allows an evaluation of the usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting short-term real GDP growth.

A Foreign Activity Measure for Predicting Canadian Exports

Staff Discussion Paper 2012-1 Louis Morel
The author constructs a measure of foreign activity that takes into account the composition of foreign demand for Canadian exports. It has a number of interesting features.

The Direct Effect of China on Canadian Consumer Prices: An Empirical Assessment

Staff Discussion Paper 2007-10 Louis Morel
The author investigates the direct effect of Chinese imported goods on consumer prices in Canada. On average, over the 2001–06 period, the direct effect of consumer goods imported from China is estimated to have reduced the inflation rate by about 0.1 percentage points per year. This disinflationary effect is due to two causes: first, the […]
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

Staff Working Papers

The Common Component of CPI: An Alternative Measure of Underlying Inflation for Canada

Staff Working Paper 2013-35 Mikael Khan, Louis Morel, Patrick Sabourin
In this paper, the authors propose a measure of underlying inflation for Canada obtained from estimating a monthly factor model on individual components of the CPI. This measure, labelled the common component of CPI, has intuitive appeal and a number of interesting features.

Quantity, Quality, and Relevance: Central Bank Research, 1990–2003

The authors document the research output of 34 central banks from 1990 to 2003, and use proxies of research inputs to measure the research productivity of central banks over this period.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Central bank research JEL Code(s): E, E5, E59