Tony Chernis is an economist in the Canadian Economic Analysis department at the Bank of Canada. As a member of the Real Economic Activity Division, he contributes to monitoring the Canadian economy, and develops tools to assist in those efforts. Tony holds a master’s degree in economics from Simon Fraser University.
This paper estimates a three‐frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial gross domestic product (GDP). Canadian provincial GDP is released by Statistics Canada on an annual basis only, with a significant lag (11 months).
This paper estimates a dynamic factor model (DFM) for nowcasting Canadian gross domestic product. The model is estimated with a mix of soft and hard indicators, and it features a high share of international data.
Canadian exports have often disappointed since the Great Recession. The apparent disconnect between exports and the Bank of Canada’s current measure of foreign demand has created an impetus to search for an alternative.