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2343
result(s)
The Macroeconomic Implications of Coholding
Staff Working Paper 2024-16
Michael Boutros,
Andrej Mijakovic
Coholder households simultaneously carry high-cost credit card debt and low-yield cash. We study the implications of this behavior for fiscal and monetary policy, finding that coholder households have smaller consumption responses in the short run but larger responses in the long run.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Economic models,
Fiscal policy,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E4,
E44,
E6,
E62,
G,
G5,
G51
Finding a Needle in a Haystack: A Machine Learning Framework for Anomaly Detection in Payment Systems
Staff Working Paper 2024-15
Ajit Desai,
Anneke Kosse,
Jacob Sharples
Our layered machine learning framework can enhance real-time transaction monitoring in high-value payment systems, which are a central piece of a country’s financial infrastructure. When tested on data from Canadian payment systems, it demonstrated potential for accurately identifying anomalous transactions. This framework could help improve cyber and operational resilience of payment systems.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Digital currencies and fintech,
Financial institutions,
Financial services,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C4,
C45,
C5,
C55,
D,
D8,
D83,
E,
E4,
E42
Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals
Staff Working Paper 2024-14
Olena Kostyshyna,
Tolga Özden,
Yang Zhang
We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Credibility,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
E,
E0,
E00,
E4,
E47,
E7
Parallel Tempering for DSGE Estimation
Staff Working Paper 2024-13
Joshua Brault
I develop a population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm known as parallel tempering to estimate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. Parallel tempering approximates the posterior distribution of interest using a family of Markov chains with tempered posteriors.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
C15,
E,
E1,
E10
Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment
Staff Analytical Note 2024-11
Tessa Devakos,
Christopher Hajzler,
Stephanie Houle,
Craig Johnston,
Antoine Poulin-Moore,
Ron Rautu,
Temel Taskin
We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E3,
E4,
E5
Assessing global potential output growth: April 2024
Staff Analytical Note 2024-10
Amor Aniss Benmoussa,
Raheeb Dastagir,
Eshini Ekanayake,
Justin-Damien Guénette,
Helen Lao,
Jenna Rolland-Mills,
Aidan Spencer,
Lin Xiang
This note presents the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for growth in global potential output. These estimates serve as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2024 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E2,
F,
F0,
O,
O4
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update
Staff Analytical Note 2024-9
Frida Adjalala,
Felipe Alves,
Hélène Desgagnés,
Wei Dong,
Dmitry Matveev,
Laure Simon
We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E40,
E43,
E5,
E50,
E52,
E58,
F,
F4,
F41
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update
Staff Analytical Note 2024-8
Erik Ens,
Alexander Lam,
Kurt See,
Gabriela Galassi
We assess the health of the Canadian labour market. We find that it has seen gradual but material easing since 2023, amid some signs of structural changes.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
J,
J2,
J3,
J6
The Neutral Interest Rate: Past, Present and Future
Staff Discussion Paper 2024-3
Matteo Cacciatore,
Bruno Feunou,
Galip Kemal Ozhan
The decline in safe real interest rates over the past three decades has reignited discussions on the neutral real interest rate, known as R*. We address the determinants and estimation methods of R*, as well as the factors influencing its decline and its future trajectory.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Interest rates,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52,
E6,
E62