Domestic demand and components

• Did U.S. Consumers Respond to the 2014–2015 Oil Price Shock? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2018-13 Patrick Alexander, Louis Poirier

  The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy is a topic of considerable debate. In this paper, we examine the response of U.S. consumers to the 2014–2015 negative oil price shock using representative survey data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, Q, Q4, Q43

• March 13, 2018 Today’s Labour Market and the Future of Work

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Chancellor David Dodge Lecture in Public Finance 2018 Kingston, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the untapped potential in Canada’s labour market and how it extends into the workforce of tomorrow.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Labour markets, Monetary Policy, Potential output, Uncertainty and monetary policy

• Identification of Random Resource Shares in Collective Households Without Preference Similarity Restrictions

  Staff Working Paper 2017-45 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Arthur Lewbel, Krishna Pendakur

  Resource shares, defined as the fraction of total household spending going to each person in a household, are important for assessing individual material well-being, inequality and poverty. They are difficult to identify because consumption is measured typically at the household level, and many goods are jointly consumed, so that individual-level consumption in multi-person households is not directly observed.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C31, D, D1, D11, D12, D13, I, I3, I32

• A Structural Interpretation of the Recent Weakness in Business Investment

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-7 Russell Barnett, Rhys R. Mendes

  Since 2012, business investment growth has slowed considerably in advanced economies, averaging a little less than 2 per cent versus the 4 per cent growth rates experienced in the period leading up to crisis. Several recent studies have attributed a large part of the weakness in business investment to cyclical factors, including soft aggregate demand, and, to a lesser degree, heightened uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E37

• May 11, 2017 Why Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Martin Leduc, Louis Morel

  Various drivers of business investment can be used to explain the underwhelming performance of investment in advanced economies since the global financial crisis, particularly since 2014. The slow growth in aggregate demand cannot by itself explain the full extent of the recent weakness in investment, which appears to be linked primarily to the collapse of global commodity prices and a rise in economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, business investment growth is likely to remain slower than in the pre-crisis period, largely because of structural factors such as population aging.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review Article Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31

• April 12, 2017 Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement

  Opening Statement Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Monetary Policy, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments, Uncertainty and monetary policy

• March 21, 2017 Getting Down to Business: Investment and the Economic Outlook

  Remarks Lawrence Schembri Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia

  Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the factors affecting business investment and the implications for the economic outlook.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Inflation and prices, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Uncertainty and monetary policy

• October 6, 2016 Economic Trends and Monetary Policy

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières Trois-Rivières, Quebec

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins talks about the major trends of the Canadian economy and how they affect monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Inflation and prices, Monetary Policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments

• The Case of Serial Disappointment

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-10 Justin-Damien Guénette, Nicholas Labelle, Martin Leduc, Lori Rennison

  Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Potential output, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E6, E66, F, F0, F01

• Crude Oil Prices and Fixed-Asset Cash Spending in the Oil and Gas Industry: Findings from VAR Models

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-8 Farrukh Suvankulov

  This note investigates the relationship between crude oil prices and investment in the energy sector. We employ a set of vector autoregression (VAR) models (unconstrained VAR, vector error-correction and Bayesian VAR) to formalize the relationship between the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark and fixed-asset cash spending in the oil and gas extraction and support activities sector of the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E27, Q, Q4, Q43, Q47