Bio

Gaelan MacKenzie is a Senior Economist. His research focuses on international trade with an overlap with labour economics, macroeconomics, growth and innovation, and industrial organization. He received a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Toronto in 2020.

Research Field(s): Applied Microeconomics Firm Dynamics Growth and Development Industrial Organization Inequality International Trade and Finance Labour Economics Macroeconomics Productivity Technological Change

Staff research

How Do Import Tariffs Affect Aggregate Prices? Theory and Evidence from Canada

Staff working paper 2026-36 Christian Bustamante, Xing Guo, Lu Han, Soyoung Lee, Gaelan MacKenzie, Mariel Yacolca Maguiña, Jacob Short
Using Canadian firm-level market shares and an oligopolistic model, the paper shows that a 25% counter-tariff on U.S. imports raises Canada's aggregate price index by 0.66%, far below direct cost pass-through predictions due to consumer substitution and markup adjustments.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F1, F13, F14, L, L1, L11, L16 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness

The Production Network Amplification of Retaliatory Tariffs

Staff working paper 2026-35 Christian Bustamante, Xing Guo, Lu Han, Soyoung Lee, Gaelan MacKenzie, Mariel Yacolca Maguiña, Jacob Short
We develop a framework to quantify how tariff changes on imported goods affect sectoral and aggregate consumption prices through direct and production-network channels. Using Canada's input-output matrix and administrative firm-good import data for the universe of Canadian firms, we estimate price elasticities for tariffs on U.S.-imported goods.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, E, E3, E31, F, F1, F13, F14 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness

Automation and Inequality: How Robots Shift Income Between Workers and Owners

Staff working paper 2026-34 Gabriela Galassi, Gaelan MacKenzie
This paper examines the direct effects of industrial robot adoption on workers and owners within Canadian private corporations. Adoption increases firm scale and per-worker payroll but does not decrease the labor share of value added. Conventional accounting of labor income earned by owners masks the impact on non-owner workers.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D3, D33, J, J2, J23, J3, J31, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity

Monetary Policy Transmission amid Demand Reallocations

Staff working paper 2024-42 Julien Bengui, Lu Han, Gaelan MacKenzie
We analyze the transmission of monetary policy during different phases of a sectoral demand reallocation episode when there are frictions to increasing production in a sector. Monetary policy is more effective in reducing inflation when a larger proportion of sectors are expanding or expect to expand in the near future.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E3, E31, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting

Trade and Diffusion of Embodied Technology: An Empirical Analysis

Staff working paper 2023-21 Stephen Ayerst, Faisal Ibrahim, Gaelan MacKenzie, Swapnika Rachapalli
Using data from patents, citations, inter-sectoral sales and customs, we examine the international diffusion of technology through imports of sectoral knowledge and production inputs. We develop an instrumental variable strategy to identify the causal effects of technology embodied in imports on innovation and diffusion outcomes.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F6, F61, O, O1, O19, O3, O31, O33 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness

Trade and Market Power in Product and Labor Markets

Staff working paper 2021-17 Gaelan MacKenzie
Trade liberalizations increase the sales and input purchases of productive firms relative to their less productive domestic competitors. This reallocation affects firms’ market power in their product and input markets. I quantify how the labour market power of employers affects the distribution and size of the gains from trade.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, F, F1, F12, F6, J, L, L1, L13 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness

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Journal publications

Refereed Journals

“Monetary Policy Transmission amid Demand Reallocations” (with Julien Bengui and Lu Han), International Journal of Central Banking, 21(2): 221–268, 2025.

“Trade and Diffusion of Embodied Technology: An Empirical Analysis” (with Stephen Ayerst, Faisal Ibrahim and Swapnika Rachapalli), Journal of Monetary Economics, 137: 128–145, 2023.

Other Research

“Automation and Inequality: How Robots Shift Income Between Workers and Owners” (with Gabriela Galassi).

“Wage Income and Profits, Workers and Owners: Evidence from Linked Canadian Data” (with Myeongwan Kim, Brian Kovak and Peter Morrow).

“The Geography of Trade Diversification and Economic Resilience to Extreme Weather Events” (with Myeongwan Kim and Jay Hyun).

“Economic Growth and Income Gaps in a Connected World” (with Stephen Ayerst and Swapnika Rachapalli).

“Trade and Market Power in Product and Labor Markets,” 2021.