Thibaut Duprey is a Principal Economist in the Financial Stability Department. His main interests include macro-financial linkages, banking theory, systemic risks, financial crises, and the associated prudential policies. Before joining the bank, he was an economist at the Financial Stability Directorate of the Banque de France. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from the Paris School of Economics.
Monetary policy decisions need to consider all potential outcomes, not just the most likely path for the economy. This is especially true in the presence of elevated financial system vulnerabilities, which lead to increased downside risks for future growth.
When financial system vulnerabilities are elevated, they can give rise to asymmetric risks to the economic outlook. To illustrate this, I consider the economic outlook presented in the Bank of Canada’s October 2017 Monetary Policy Report in the context of two key financial system vulnerabilities: high levels of household indebtedness and housing market imbalances.
This note presents a composite indicator of Canadian financial system vulnerabilities—the Vulnerabilities Barometer. It aims to complement the Bank of Canada’s vulnerabilities assessment by adding a quantitative and synthesized perspective to the more granular (distributional) analysis presented in the Financial System Review.
This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state.
Do publicly-owned banks lend against the wind? (2015). International Journal of Central Banking, 11(2).
Macroprudential framework: key questions applied to the French case (2014). Banque de France Occasional papers, n° 9. (with Taryk Bennani, Morgan Després, Marine Dujardin and Anna Kelber (Banque de France)).
Other Working Papers
"Does the heterogeneity in bank efficiency matter ?"
"Procyclical leverage and endogeneous Value-at-Risk constraint."
"Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries." (with Benjamin Klaus (ECB) and Tuomas Peltonen (ECB)).
"Bank Capital Adjustment Process and Aggregate Lending." (with Mathias Lé (French Prudential Authority)).
"A DSGE model for a Macroprudential policy assessment in France." (with David Gauthier (Banque de France and University Paris 1), Julien Idier (Banque de France) and Pierlauro Lopez (Banque de France)).