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311 Results

Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023

We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4
May 4, 2023

Getting inflation back to 2%

Speech summary Tiff Macklem Toronto Region Board of Trade Toronto, Ontario
Governor Tiff Macklem explains that higher interest rates are working to slow inflation but warns that getting all the way back to the 2% target may take time. He also discusses the recent stress in the global banking sector and how financial stability and price stability work together.
May 4, 2023

Staying the course to price stability

Remarks Tiff Macklem Toronto Region Board of Trade Toronto, Ontario
Governor Tiff Macklem explains how monetary policy is working to bring inflation down and outlines the challenges ahead. He also discusses recent stress in the global banking sector and how financial stability and price stability interact.

Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media

Staff Working Paper 2023-23 Alistair Macaulay, Wenting Song
News media present competing interpretations of what breaking news implies for the macroeconomy. Recent examples include news reporting on high inflation and yield curve inversions. Do these narratives shape macroeconomic sentiment? In this paper, we highlight the importance of narratives using evidence linking traditional media and social media.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E32, E4, E43, E44, E5, G, G1
March 9, 2023

Economic progress report: Thinking globally, acting locally

Remarks Carolyn Rogers Manitoba Chambers of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers discusses the Bank’s latest interest rate decision and recent global and domestic developments, including how Canada’s economic and inflation experience compares with other countries.
March 9, 2023

Understanding the reasons for high inflation

Speech summary Carolyn Rogers Manitoba Chambers of Commerce Winnipeg, Manitoba
Speaking a day after we decided to hold the policy rate, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers talks about the factors behind high inflation and how we know inflation is falling.

The Canadian Neutral Rate of Interest through the Lens of an Overlapping-Generations Model

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-5 Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev
We use a small open economy model with overlapping generations to evaluate secular dynamics of the neutral rate in Canada from 1980 to 2018. We find that changes in both foreign and domestic factors resulted in a protracted decline in the neutral rate.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E22, E4, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory

Staff Working Paper 2023-11 Janet Hua Jiang, Daniela Puzzello, Cathy Zhang
We investigate the effect of inflation on output and welfare in the laboratory. Consistent with monetary theory, we find that inflation acts as a tax on monetary exchange and reduces output and welfare.
February 7, 2023

Monetary policy at work

Remarks Tiff Macklem CFA Québec Québec, Québec
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem explains how recent interest rate increases work their way through the Canadian economy to slow demand and bring inflation down.
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