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2044 Results

Estimating the Portfolio-Balance Effects of the Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program

Staff Working Paper 2024-34 Antonio Diez de los Rios
Using a novel dynamic portfolio balance model of the yield curve for Government of Canada bonds, I find that the Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program reduced Canadian 10-year and 5-year zero-coupon yields by 84 and 52 basis points, respectively.

Evaluating the portfolio balance effects of the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program on the Canadian yield curve

Staff Analytical Note 2024-22 Antonio Diez de los Rios
The Bank of Canada’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program, launched in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, lowered the weighted average maturity of the Government of Canada’s debt by approximately 1.4 years. This in turn reduced Canadian 10-year and 5-year zero-coupon yields by 84 and 52 basis points, respectively.

Digital Payments: A Framework for Inclusive Design

We propose a framework for designing cognitively accessible payment and banking interfaces through design guidelines, testing and proposed measures to optimize system learnability and user workload. We include, as a case study, the results of testing this framework with users with cognitive disabilities, using a prototype system for voice payments.

Monetary Policy Governance: Bank of Canada Practices to Support Policy Effectiveness

Staff Discussion Paper 2024-14 Brigitte Desroches, Sharon Kozicki, Laure Simon
We examine different monetary policy governance structures and discuss the important roles of non-legislated processes and practices. We also provide an update on monetary policy governance at the Bank of Canada and how it has evolved over time.

Ecosystem Models for a Central Bank Digital Currency: Analysis Framework and Potential Models

This note analyzes different economic models of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) ecosystem where the central bank chooses different levels of market involvement and usage of policy levers. The analysis suggests that there are trade-offs between the costs to the central bank and its ability to achieve policy goals like universal access.

Household Food Inflation in Canada

Staff Working Paper 2024-33 Olena Kostyshyna, Maude Ouellet
We study food inflation rates for Canadian households during periods of low and high inflation from 2012Q4 to 2023Q4. Households experienced more varied inflation rates during the recent high inflation. Cumulative food inflation has been 2.2 percentage points higher for lower-income households than for highest-income households since the inflation surge.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E30, E31, L, L8, L81

Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment

Staff Working Paper 2024-32 Thibaut Duprey, Soojin Jo, Geneviève Vallée
We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel.

Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge

Staff Working Paper 2024-31 Alberto Cavallo, Oleksiy Kryvtsov
We study how price variation within a store changes with inflation, and whether households exploit these changes to reduce the burden of inflation. We find that price changes from discounts mitigated the inflation burden while cheapflation exacerbated it.

Decision Synthesis in Monetary Policy

Staff Working Paper 2024-30 Tony Chernis, Gary Koop, Emily Tallman, Mike West
We use Bayesian predictive decision synthesis to formalize monetary policy decision-making. We develop a case-study of monetary policy decision-making of an inflation-targeting central bank using multiple models in a manner that considers decision goals, expectations and outcomes.

CORRA: Explaining the rise in volumes and resulting upward pressure

Staff Analytical Note 2024-21 Boran Plong, Neil Maru
On May 27, 2024, the settlement period for trading GoC bonds in the secondary market in Canada moved from two days to one. This shortened time for settling secondary cash bond trades caused CORRA volumes to rise significantly, and they have remained elevated since. This combined with the skew in demand for funding has pressured CORRA higher. We find no indications that any other factors are contributing to the most recent pressures on CORRA.
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