Ruben is a Senior Economist in the Financial Stability Department. His research interests are econometrics, statistics and empirical finance. Specifically, he conducted research on networks and the identification of Structural VAR models. Ruben holds a Ph.D. degree from the University of Mannheim.
Understanding the size of sectoral links is crucial to predicting the impact of a crisis on the whole economy. We show that statistical learning techniques substantially outperform traditional estimation techniques when measuring large networks of these links.
Banks’ business interactions create a network of relationships that are hidden in the correlations of bank stock returns. But for policy interventions, we need causality to understand how the network changes. Thus, this paper looks for the causal network anticipated by investors.
We present a new corporate default model, one of the building blocks of the Bank of Canada’s bank stress-testing infrastructure. The model is used to forecast corporate loan losses of the Canadian banking sector under stress.