Bio

Geneviève Vallée is a senior economist in the Financial Intermediation Risk Evaluation (FIRE) team of the Financial Stability Department. In this function, she contributes to analysis and research assessing system-wide vulnerabilities related to financial institutions and non-bank financial intermediaries.

Prior to this current role, Geneviève has also work in the Real Sector Stability and Climate Analysis Team in the Financial Stability Department, and in the Economic Research and Analysis team in the Currency Department. In these roles, she helped advance the analysis and research on household finance, financial system impacts of climate change, and payments.

Staff analytical notes

What we can learn by linking firms’ reported emissions with their financial data

Staff Analytical Note 2023-4 Matthew Ackman, Timothy Grieder, Callie Symmers, Geneviève Vallée
We analyze the financial statements and stock prices of publicly traded firms incorporated in Canada that report greenhouse gas emissions. We find that these firms primarily use equity financing. We also find that equity investors increasingly account for firms’ emissions when making investment decisions but the impact appears small. This suggests that assets exposed to climate change remain at risk of a sudden repricing.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Climate change, Financial stability, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): G, G1, G3, Q, Q5

Household financial vulnerabilities and physical climate risks

Staff Analytical Note 2021-19 Thibaut Duprey, Colin Jones, Callie Symmers, Geneviève Vallée
Natural disasters occur more often than before, potentially exposing households to financial distress. We study the intersection between household financial vulnerabilities and severe weather events.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, C3, C38, D, D1, D14, Q, Q5, Q54

Household indebtedness risks in the wake of COVID‑19

Staff Analytical Note 2020-8 Olga Bilyk, Anson T. Y. Ho, Mikael Khan, Geneviève Vallée
COVID-19 presents challenges for indebted households. We assess these by drawing parallels between pandemics and natural disasters. Taking into account the financial health of the household sector when the pandemic began, we run model simulations to illustrate how payment deferrals and the labour market recovery will affect mortgage defaults.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Climate change, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Fiscal policy, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, D14, E, E2, E24, E27, E6, E62, G, G2, G21, G28, R, R2

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Staff discussion papers

Climate-Related Flood Risk to Residential Lending Portfolios in Canada

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-33 Craig Johnston, Geneviève Vallée, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Brett Lindsay, Miguel Molico, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts
We assess the potential financial risks of current and projected flooding caused by extreme weather events in Canada. We focus on the residential real estate secured lending (RESL) portfolios of Canadian financial institutions (FIs) because RESL portfolios are an important component of FIs’ balance sheets and because the assets used to secure such loans are immobile and susceptible to climate-related extreme weather events.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54

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Staff working papers

Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment

Staff Working Paper 2024-32 Thibaut Duprey, Soojin Jo, Geneviève Vallée
We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E2, E24, J, J3, Q, Q5, Q54

We Didn’t Start the Fire: Effects of a Natural Disaster on Consumers’ Financial Distress

Staff Working Paper 2023-15 Anson T. Y. Ho, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez, Geneviève Vallée
We use detailed consumer credit data to investigate the impact of the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire, the costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history, on consumers’ financial stress. We focus on the arrears of insured mortgages because of their important implications for financial institutions and insurers’ business risk and relevant management practices.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D1, D12, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54

How Long Does It Take You to Pay? A Duration Study of Canadian Retail Transaction Payment Times

Staff Working Paper 2018-46 Geneviève Vallée
Using an exclusive data set of payment times for retail transactions made in Canada, I show that cash is the most time-efficient method of payment (MOP) when compared with payments by debit and credit cards. I model payment efficiency using Cox proportional hazard models, accounting for consumer choice of MOP.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C2, C25, C3, C36, C4, C41, D, D2, D23, E, E4, E41, E42

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Bank publications

Financial System Hub articles

January 15, 2024

Flood risk and residential lending

Craig Johnston, Geneviève Vallée, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Miguel Molico, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts
We present key findings of a recent study that evaluates the credit risk that flooding poses to the residential lending activities of Canadian banks and credit unions. Results show that such risk currently appears modest but could become larger with climate change.
Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54
September 24, 2021

Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic—update, July 2021

Geneviève Vallée
In the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s financial institutions allowed households to defer payments on a range of loans. With nearly all of these deferrals having expired, we provide a final update of how these loans have performed through to July 2021.
Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates
May 21, 2021

Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic—update, March 2021

Geneviève Vallée
In the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s financial institutions allowed households to defer payments on a range of loans. With most of these deferrals having expired, we present updated details of how these loans have performed through to March 2021.
Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates
November 23, 2020

Monitoring payment deferrals during the COVID-19 pandemic

Geneviève Vallée
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s financial institutions have allowed borrowers to defer payments on a range of loans. In a series of charts, we investigate what payment deferrals tell us about the financial health of borrowers and the related risks to financial stability.
Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Credit and credit aggregates

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